Chase Analytics: Kevin Harvick enters the playoffs as favorite

Kevin Harvick starts the Chase with a 34 percent probability of being the 2016 champion.

Just like last year, with the help of Andrew Maness from the racing analytics firm Pit Rho, we ran the numbers to show every driver’s shot of moving through each round of the Chase. As usual, the mathematical model was designed by both Maness and myself, taking into account past driver performance to predict future results. By running 100,000 simulations of how the rest of the season might play out, we can see what the most likely outcomes are.

Technically speaking, every one of the 16 drivers has a chance of winning the title. Even that 0.0 for Chris Buescher is actually 0.016 percent. That means if he ran his 10 best races, while everybody else ran less than their 10 best, he could pull off the upset.

2016-chase-probs

At the top of the list, you see the usual culprits, like Harvick, Brad Keselowski, and Denny Hamlin. Remember that the Chase sets up weird incentives: You need to win or at least run consistently to move through the rounds. And making it through the rounds isn’t the same as winning the title.

Notice the difference between Kyle Busch and Jamie McMurray. They have very similar chances of advancing to the second round (Busch at 81 percent and McMurray at 78 percent). But Busch has a real solid shot at winning the title (6.8 percent) while McMurray’s is much closer to zero.

That’s because we know Busch can win races, but he also could blow up at any time. We can’t trust Busch to guarantee a second round spot, but if he does make it, then all of a sudden he could get hot and win it all. Busch only has the ninth-best chance of making it past round one, yet he has the fifth-best chance of winning the title. That’s the uncertainty I’m talking about.

Martin Truex Jr. is the opposite. He has a 90 percent chance of making it past the first round, but only a five percent title chance. He’s a consistent driver in the top 10 but has trouble sealing the deal on winning races. Notice his 90 percent chance to make the second round is almost the same as Denny Hamlin’s chance, but they have significant differences in their title shots.

This year’s loss of Jeff Gordon and Dale Earnhardt Jr. from the Chase has opened the door for fresher names to make it in, like Chip Ganassi’s Kyle Larson.

“If you had asked me in April, there’s no way that I would have predicted that both Ganassi cars would be running so well at this point in the season,” said Dr. Josh Browne, a former NASCAR race engineer and now co-founder at Pit Rho. “It’s a remarkable turnaround in such a short period of time. The model seems to capture this, and we give both cars a good chance of making it to the next round.”

Of course, you have to remember that these numbers are good for this week and this week only. As soon as the next race is completed, new performance results will change the data. As we know, 15 drivers are eventually going to see their title hopes dwindle away to zero by November.

Eric Chemi runs data journalism for our sister network CNBC, including a heavy dose of sports analytics. Prior to that, his NASCAR forecasts have been on Sprint Cup television broadcasts, and he has consulted for Sprint Cup teams on strategy, statistics, data, and analytics. He graduated with an engineering degree from MIT.

NASCAR INTRODUCES RULES CHANGES FOR CHASE

NASCAR introduced rules changes for the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup playoffs on Wednesday, giving competition officials the power to issue more stringent rulings on technical infractions involving post-race laser inspections and lug nuts.

The developments were announced just days before the series visits Chicagoland Speedway for Sunday's Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 400 (2:30 p.m. ET, NBCSN, MRN, SiriusXM), the opening event in the 10-race Chase playoffs.

Similar changes, where applicable, will also be in place for the inaugural Chase events in NASCAR's XFINITY Series and Camping World Truck Series, which get underway in two weeks, at Kentucky and New Hampshire, respectively.

The changes allow NASCAR officials to strip race-winning teams of the benefits associated with a Chase victory, which include the automatic advancement into the next elimination round and any tiebreaker implications, should those teams fail the post-race lug-nut check or the post-race Laser Inspection Station (LIS) platform.

Previously, lug-nut infractions have resulted in a one-race suspension and a fine for the crew chief while LIS failures have carried a point deduction in the drivers' and owners' championship points, in addition to the crew chief fine.

Going into the Chase, post-race failure of the LIS platform now will be deemed a P4 level penalty if a vehicle's rear toe measurements exceed the allowed measurements on both sides.

In the Sprint Cup Series, the first violation would result in an encumbered finishing position, the loss of 35 championship driver and owner points, as well as a three-race suspension and $65,000 fine for the crew chief.

In the XFINITY Series, the penalties would be the same, but the crew chief fine would be $20,000.

The LIS platform is not a part of the NCWTS inspection process.

The penalties will be the same as those for an LIS infraction if a vehicle is found to have 17 or fewer lug nuts in place following the completion of the event (in Sprint Cup, XFINITY or Camping World Truck).

"The changes are made to assure that we have a level playing field and make sure that there's not a carrot out there for the team to have excessive violations when it comes to lug nuts and the LIS post-race measurements," Scott Miller, NASCAR Senior Vice President of Competition, told NASCAR.com. "As we worked with those penalties during the season we realized we probably needed to have a little bit more in place as Chase time rolled around.

"The Chase obviously changes a lot of scenarios for both NASCAR and the teams; it's ramped up the intensity and there is a lot of scrutiny, as there is every week on everything (involving) technical infractions. This is really just a matter of us putting something in place so that should something happen, we have a means to effectively deal with it."

Miller noted that the "encumbered finish" is already a part of the NASCAR rulebook. "This just adds a little bit of definition to how we will use it moving forward," he said.

NASCAR officials cracked down on lug nut penalties with new rules this spring, making sure the wheel is securely fastened on all five studs at a pit-road checkpoint after the race. At least five teams have been found in violation during post-race inspection, including those of drivers Kevin Harvick (Stewart-Haas Racing) and Kyle Busch (Joe Gibbs Racing).

The LIS platform has been used to measure cars' chassis with precision since the start of the 2013 season. The majority of failures this year have centered on rear toe alignment.

Six Sprint Cup Series drivers and teams have been penalized this year for failing the LIS portion of the post-race inspection process -- Kasey Kahne, Hendrick Motorsports No. 5 Chevrolet (Dover); Matt Kenseth, Joe Gibbs Racing No. 20 Toyota (New Hampshire), Brad Keselowski, Team Penske No. 2 Ford (Michigan), Kyle Larson, Chip Ganassi Racing No. 42 Chevrolet (Darlington), Ryan Newman, Richard Childress Racing No. 31 Chevrolet (Darlington) and Martin Truex Jr., Furniture Row Racing No. 78 Toyota (Richmond).

Miller said he expects the rules to remain in place for the 2017 season as well.

LIS failures during pre-race inspection result in written warnings, with the potential for lost track time after a team's fourth violation.

Should an infraction involving post-race LIS or lug nut inspection occur during the championship race at Homestead for any of the three series, the finish of the team found to be in violation would not count toward the determination of the series champion, or for any other positions that might be determined via tiebreakers.

Busch is the defending Sprint Cup Series champion while Harvick was the first to win a title under the current Chase format, which debuted in 2014.

These latest changes were made in collaboration with industry partners. "It should be no surprise to anybody where we landed," Miller said.

"As we convened with some of the team principals and competition guys, it became pretty obvious that we needed to do something like this."

The kid who nearly stopped Sprint Cup practice at New Hampshire Motor Speedway

Keelan Harvick has spent much of his in the social media spotlight, but the 4-year-old son of Kevin Harvick recently came close to being the focus of a news media headline.

During a Sprint Cup practice at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in July, Keelan Harvick wanted to play baseball, so DeLana Harvick took her son to a parking lot on the backstretch.

“He’s crushing the baseball and it comes this close to going over the wall on the track, and I’m freaking out,’ DeLana Harvick said with a laugh on the NASCAR on NBC podcast episode released Wednesday. “Oh my God, if they have a caution because Keelan hit a ball on the track, it’s going to be bad.”

A NASCAR official retrieved the ball, which had landed against the wall.

Crisis averted.

“They gave it back to him and said, ‘Good hit buddy!’ And I’m like, Oh God, I can imagine telling Kevin, ‘That was me. That was your son. We caused a caution,’” DeLana said. “But it doesn’t matter what’s going on. If Keelan wants to go do something, we’re going to go do it.”

In the podcast, she explains how the couple decided that because Keelan was the center of their lives, their son naturally would appear in the public sides of their existence that appears on social media.

“I didn’t know how much we’d share,” she said. “I always saw those people with kids posting all their pictures and thought, ‘Good Lord, I don’t want to see any more pictures of your kids.’ And then you have a child, and something clicks in your brain. Of course every parent thinks their kid is the cutest and funniest kid in the world but because our families don’t live with us anymore, that’s a way they can see it. You never know exactly how much you’re going to share.”

DeLana said she and Kevin might be inclined to set more boundaries with sharing their personal lives with Keelan as he gets older and more self-conscious.

“He’s already getting to the point now,” she said. “At Michigan, a camera came up and he walked behind us. He’s starting to become uncomfortable with it.

“People will come ask Keelan to sign an autograph. I tell him if you’d like to sign this, it’s OK. I never force him to do anything, take a picture or talk to anyone. It’s a little different. It’s a hard balance.”

Other topics discussed by Harvick on the podcast:

–The growth of KHI Management into a multifaceted agency representing a varied clientele;

–The transition from being focused solely on running race teams into raising a child;

–How her husband’s professional live is called by his personal life.

To listen to the full podcast, you can click below or download the episode by subscribing to it on iTunes by clicking here. The free subscription will provide automatic downloads of new episodes to your smartphone or tablet.

The podcast also is available on Stitcher, Google Play, Spotify and a host of other smartphone apps.

NASCAR alters penalty for lug nut and Laser Inspection violations

NASCAR announced Wednesday increased penalties, including not allowing a win to count toward advancement in the Chase, for teams that fail the Laser Inspection Station by a significant amount or do not have enough lug nuts secure at the end of the race.

The changes are effective immediately. Teams are scheduled to receive the bulletin on this at 4 p.m. ET. Only the Sprint Cup and Xfinity Series use the Laser Inspection Station after the race. The lug nut policy would be for all three national series.

If a winning team fails the Laser Inspection Station by a significant amount or has more than three of 20 lug nuts not secure after the race, it will still keep the win but be penalized so severely that it could hurt their chances of advancing in the Chase or making the Chase.

In such cases, NASCAR would declare an encumbered race finish.

An encumbered race finish has the following effects, as applicable:

If a win, that finish would not count when determining Chase eligibility, eligibility for advancement in the Chase, eligibility for non-championship events such as the Unlimited and All-Star Race.
Regardless of the finishing position, that finish does not count when determining the champion and three runners-up in the final race of the Chase; tie-breakers in Section 17 and as those tie-breakers may be applied relative to finishing positions elsewhere
An encumbered race finish is not a disqualification.
The finishing position is still shown on the Official Results
A team would face such penalties if more than three of the 20 lug nuts on its car were not secure at the end of the race. In such a case, a team also would face a $65,000 fine, loss of 35 driver and owner points and the crew chief will be suspended three races.

With the Laser Inspection Station, if the rear toe is equal to or greater than 0.86 on one side and equal to and greater than 0.56 on the opposite side, it would be a P4 penalty and the team would face a $65,000 fine, loss of 35 driver and owner points and the crew chief would be suspended three races.

“We want to ensure that everything was in check with the LIS and the lug nuts, which are both new rules for this year,’’ said Scott Miller, senior vice president of competition for NASCAR, on the increased penalties. “We wanted to make sure that the door wasn’t open for a team to really take advantage of the rules. The level of infraction that it takes to end up with an encumbered finish, we haven’t seen that. It would certainly be egregious from everything we’ve seen before. We want to get these things in place to ensure we have a level playing field and nobody tries to take advantage of the current rules.’’

One change NASCAR announced was a lessening of a penalty. Previously, a team’s crew chief was suspended for one race if the team had one lug nut not secure after the race. Now, a crew chief won’t be suspended unless there are two of the 20 lug nuts on the car not secure.

“That was kind of a one-tier approach to assure that the garage area complied with a pretty serious penalty for a crew chief suspension,’’ Miller said of the previous penalty. “As we looked at a more global approach and deeper, what we proposed here and what we enacted here is a lot more the penalty fitting the crime.’’

NASCAR Heat Evolution Features 40-Player Races

Hey, PlayStation drivers! NASCAR Heat Evolution began with a mission: deliver the most intense NASCAR racing experience. Working alongside Monster Games, known for developing classic NASCAR games like the original NASCAR Heat and NASCAR: Dirt to Daytona, we pushed ourselves to find innovative ways to make our racing vision a reality.
That meant extensive car tuning options, adaptive AI that adjusts to your skill level, in-depth Career and Championship modes to capture the exhilaration of the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup, and a new Challenge mode for those who want to step into the cockpit of their favorite drivers and recreate real-life history.

But the biggest thing we wanted to do to separate NASCAR Heat Evolution from any NASCAR title you’ve played before is in online competitive multiplayer. As the first official NASCAR game on PS4, we recognized we had the power to do things never before possible in a NASCAR game. So we committed to giving players the real deal: a full field of 40 racers in online multiplayer — 40 human players all going for the checkered flag in the same race.

In previous NASCAR console games, each multiplayer game was hosted by a specific user, and that kind of peer-to-peer system could result in a number of issues — the host could leave, or have a poor connection, and that could negatively alter the entire race. We knew that system wouldn’t fly if we wanted to put 40 players together in NASCAR Heat Evolution. We built a new system where each online game’s data is hosted by a server. All race data comes from that server, so the entire race experience is no longer tied to any one player.

There will be three different online lobbies available: No Rules, Normal, and Hosted.
No Rules: If you’re a beginner just looking to learn, bump, and crash (or you just want to bump and crash), the No Rules lobby is for you. This is a great place to practice, try things out, or just have a good time with friends.
Normal: For players who want to test their skills but are still looking for a good, clean, and friendly race.

Hosted: This lobby is for people who are more serious about racing. Race hosts will have the option to decide which level of player can join the race session. For example, if the host only wants racers level 5 or higher, he or she can set that parameter when creating the session. In addition, hosts have the right to boot players from their game.

Within each of these lobbies, players have the option of joining an existing session or creating their own. When creating your own race, you’ll be able to select the track, number of laps, fuel/tire wear, and max number of players. Once a race has been created, it will begin in 60 seconds whether the requested number of drivers have joined or not.
Unfortunately, due to the resources required to balance 40 separate players in one race, caution flags will not be available in online multiplayer. It’s not an ideal situation, but we really believe in the new opportunities that multiplayer on this scale opens up. Pitting will still be available in online races depending on the race length and wear options selected. Finally, players have the option to create a private race and invite their friends. This feature is perfect for NASCAR Heat Evolution leagues that want to host weekly races.

Multiplayer will only feature human drivers on the track, so if there are 24 human players in a session, you will see 24 cars on screen. Your starting position is determined by previous lap times at that track. Those with faster lap times will start closer to the front, helping to ensure that players of equal racing ability are placed near one another for a clean start. If a player quits a race for any reason, their car will disappear from the race, but everyone else can continue to compete for the checkered flag. Players who finish online multiplayer races will get Speed Points, as they do in offline racing. There are also a number of PlayStation Trophies up for grabs for those who compete online.
Online or offline, we’re very excited for you to finally get your chance to play NASCAR Heat Evolution when it launches on September 13. See you on the track!

Radioactive: Richmond - "Whiny little [expletive] ain't getting any help from me."

Check out all the best scanner audio from the Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond International Raceway.

John Hunter Nemechek gains primary sponsorship for five of seven Truck chase races

Ahead of his participation in the first Camping World Truck Series Chase, NEMCO Motorsports has announced that John Hunter Nemechek has gained sponsorship from Fire Alarm Services, Inc. for five of the seven postseason races.

Nemechek, who claimed his second win of the year two weeks ago at Canadian Tire Motorsport Park in a controversial finish, has already been sponsored by FAS in three races this year, which included a pole at Iowa Speedway.

The No. 8 Chevrolet will have FAS on it beginning with the Chase opening race at New Hampshire Motor Speedway on Sept. 24. It will reappear at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Talladega Superspeedway, Phoenix International Raceway and the season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

“NEMCO Motorsports is very proud and honored to have Fire Alarm Services, Inc., return as a primary sponsor for a majority of the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series Chase events,” team owner Joe Nemechek said in a press release. “John Hunter (Nemechek) captured the first pole award for Fire Alarm Services, Inc., and we hope to capture the first championship with them as well.”

Nemechek will be one of eight drivers in the Truck Series’ Chase field. The field will be completely set in this weekend’s regular season finale at Chicagoland Speedway.