PHONE CALL CHANGES JIMMIE JOHNSON'S CHASE OUTLOOK

LOUDON, N.H. -- Jimmie Johnson felt certain he'd be facing a much larger deficit in the second event of the 10-race Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup playoffs. A points penalty for his Hendrick Motorsports No. 48 Chevrolet failing its post-race pass through the Laser Inspection Station (LIS) platform last week likely would have dropped him into the bottom four of the 16-driver postseason field.

But Johnson said he received a phone call Wednesday afternoon on his way back from his race shop that altered his outlook. NASCAR competition officials had just implemented a midweek update regarding minor LIS infractions, offering a reprieve for both himself and the Furniture Row Racing No. 78 team of last weekend's race winner, Martin Truex Jr.

"I was just taking my lumps and going on with my business and then kind of Christmas showed up in September," Johnson said Friday after qualifying fourth for Sunday's Bad Boy Off Road 300 (2 p.m. ET, NBCSN, PRN, SiriusXM) at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. "Just unexpected, but happy."

NASCAR's competition department announced Wednesday that P2 and P3-level penalties would be eliminated for lesser LIS violations found in post-race inspections, leaving the stricter P4-grade punishments in place for more egregious infractions. Truex, who automatically advanced to the Chase's next round with his victory at Chicagoland Speedway, and Johnson were not penalized in the points standings.

Johnson said he was pleasantly surprised, though he knew his car was slightly outside of the allowable measurements for its rear axle offset, or "skew."

"I really feel NASCAR was trying to create a penalty system that was more forgiving," Johnson said. "Stuff bends, stuff moves, and they set those tolerances up to really help the garage area and then to keep cars failing out of the headlines. But it's tough. There's a lot of moving parts in these cars and of course we're trying to get as much skew as we can and we failed.

"I'm sure directionally, it was an advantage. Everybody will take every hundredth of an inch they can get. I think we were four thousandths over. I don't know how much of an advantage you can get in four thousandths. That's awfully, awfully small, but we're in a world now where it's black or white."

The non-penalty kept Johnson in the heart of the Chase's opening round, slotted eighth with a 13-point spread behind series leader Truex. Four drivers will be eliminated from championship eligibility after next weekend's race at Dover International Speedway, where Johnson has won a record 10 times.

Johnson's current ranking could be worse had the penalty taken effect, but it could have been better as well. Johnson was solidly on the verge of a top-five finish last week at Chicagoland, but a pit-road speeding penalty on his penultimate stop bumped him outside the top 10.

Johnson said he began to accelerate just 2 feet too early at the pit-exit line, sending him over the speed limit for the final timing section and offsetting the performance strides the No. 48 team had made in recent weeks.

"We've definitely been showing speed over the last month and a half," Johnson said. "That's been something that's very welcomed and it's been a lot of hard work to get to that point. Unfortunately, mistakes still are continuing to happen and last week was on me."

RELATED: Hear Johnson's reaction on the scanner

Radioactive: Chicago - "No! No! There's no [expletive] way!" - 'NASCAR Race Hub'

Check out all the best scanner audio from the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 400 at Chicagoland Speedway

TRUEX JR. TAKES LESS, GIVES MORE TO FURNITURE ROW

JOLIET, Ill. -- How sincere was Martin Truex Jr. in his desire to stay with Furniture Row Racing during contract talks with team officials?

Enough that the 36-year-old NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver agreed to work for less than he likely could have earned elsewhere.

"There were other opportunities that were out there," Truex said Sunday after winning the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 400 at Chicagoland Speedway.  "I believe this is the best team I've ever had. This is my best opportunity to win races. We've proven that. It's my best opportunity, and really only my second opportunity, since last year, to go for a championship. That wasn't something I was willing to get rid of or throw away."

While Furniture Row officials were in the midst of making the switch from Chevrolet to Toyota a year ago, a contract extension with Truex was also wrapping up. In late September, officials announced both agreements were in place.

Then, in August of this year, the team announced a new, two-year extension for Truex.

RELATED: Truex inks new deal at Furniture Row

"I made the commitment to Barney we were going to do it, we were going to work together and make it work for everybody," Truex said of the arrangement. "Barney has put a lot into his race team over the years obviously. Seeing Furniture Row on that race car each and every year, that's Barney's race car and Barney is the one funding it.

"He had to change some things in the way he was running his race team. He asked me if I would kind of, not take the hit but be the one that took a little bit of a hit for the team to make sure we could keep the competition up and make sure we could continue to get the things we needed to be competitive and win races and hopefully go after a championship."

Visser started the Denver-based team from scratch in 2005, and has funded the single-car outfit for much of its existence through his own businesses.

Others have come on board to help the cause and the switch from Chevrolet to Toyota has paid tremendous dividends. Sunday's victory was the third of the season for Truex and more importantly it came in the opening race of the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup. He and the No. 78 team, run by crew chief Cole Pearn, are guaranteed to advance to the Round of 12 in the Chase.

Prior to this season, Truex had three career wins. Furniture Row had two.

The organization, which now receives technical support from Joe Gibbs Racing, will expand in 2017 with the addition of a second team and driver Erik Jones.

RELATED: Furniture Row adds Jones to growing team

The rise from a struggling single-car outfit to a championship contender didn't happen overnight.

"Yeah, I do feel like I'm living a dream," Visser, a Vietnam veteran, said. "But that's why we do it. Most of the other things that I've done in life have been a little bit like this, but nothing right to the very top of the best racing in the world here. (It's) very exciting.

"I have to thank Toyota and Martin. Like I said, I think he's a pure athlete. He drove for a little bit less this year than I think a lot of the drivers in his class have, and he did it because he wanted to be here. I can't thank him enough for all that."

NOS. 78, 48 FAIL POST-RACE INSPECTION AT CHICAGO

The No. 78 Toyota of race winner Martin Truex Jr. and the No. 48 Chevrolet of Jimmie Johnson failed post-race inspection Sunday following the opening race in the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup.

Both cars failed during both trips through the Laser Inspection System (LIS). Any penalties will be announced later in the week, according to NASCAR.

"It is what it is," No. 78 crew chief Cole Pearn said post-race in the Sprint Cup garage. "Kind of a bummer on the day, but whatever, you know. We'll move on. … It's just really tricky. It's just the repeatability. Things relax. It's not the stiffest suspension back there, by any means. You try to account for that and prevent it and we missed it. We missed it two weeks in a row, which is kind of crappy."

This is the second consecutive week the No. 78 failed post-race LIS.

RELATED: No. 78 fails Richmond post-race | Team assessed P2 penalty

Previous LIS violations have produced either 10- or 15-point deductions during the regular season. NASCAR recently updated its rules for "encumbered" victory penalties during the postseason, but those would not be in effect for Truex Jr. because it was the lowest grade of failure for the LIS platform.

"The right rear of our car was well within the tolerance margin, which showed that we were trying to be conservative," Furniture Row Racing announced in a team release on Monday. "However, the left rear wheel alignment was off by approximately ten-thousandths of an inch, which in high probability was due to damage in that area as a result of being hit by the No. 4 car. We believe the laser inspection numbers were correct and accept NASCAR's decision that was made following Sunday’s Sprint Cup Series race at Chicagoland Speedway."

RELATED: Read more about the rules updates

Kyle Busch's No. 18 Toyota failed its first trip through the LIS platform, but passed the second. That does not equal a failed post-race inspection.

Additionally, the No. 16 Ford of Greg Biffle was missing one lug nut after the race and the No. 43 Ford of Aric Almirola had a broken stud.

The Nos. 78, 22 (of Joey Logano) and 24 (of Chase Elliott) will undergo further scrutiny at the weekly post-race inspection at the R&D Center in Concord, North Carolina, on Tuesday. That event will be live-streamed on NASCAR.com.

Furniture Row Racing accepts NASCAR’s post-race inspection findings

Furniture Row Racing issued a statement Monday regarding the No. 78 of Martin Truex Jr. failing inspection following Sunday’s race at Chicagoland Speedway.

Following his win, NASCAR’s laser inspection found the left rear of Truex’ car was not within tolerated measurements. Furniture Row Racing president Joe Garone stated that the team accepted NASCAR’s ruling.

“The right rear of our car was well within the tolerance margin, which showed that we were trying to be conservative. However, the left rear wheel alignment was off by approximately 10-thousandths of an inch, which in high probability was due to damage in that area as a result of being hit by the No. 4 car. We believe the laser inspection numbers were correct and accept NASCAR’s decision that was made following Sunday’s Sprint Cup Series race at Chicagoland Speedway.”

Both Truex and Jimmie Johnson failed laser inspection twice after the race. Any penalties are expected to be announced later this week. NASCAR stated Sunday that any penalty would not prevent Truex from advancing to the second round via the win.

Upon Further Review: Mirror image with No. 24 car

JOLIET, Ill. — While rookie Chase Elliott’s third-place finish puts him in a good spot to advance to the next round of the Chase, it doesn’t put away any frustration with trying to score that first Sprint Cup victory.

For the second time in the last four races, Elliott lost the lead in the late stages of a race.

Sunday, Elliott was leading at Chicagoland Speedway when a caution came out for Michael McDowell’s blown tire, sending the race into overtime. Elliott went to pit but came out second. Three cars did not pit. That meant Elliott restarted fifth. Martin Truex Jr. restarted fourth and took the lead shortly after the green flag waved to win his third race of the season.

“There are some things you just can’t control with the amount of guys that stay out and where you line up on a restart,’’ Elliott said. “We played the cards we were dealt and came up short.’’

So when will Elliott win?

Maybe one should look at the driver he’s replaced in the No. 24 — Jeff Gordon.

Sunday’s race was Elliott’s 32nd career Sprint Cup race. Comparing his stats to what Gordon accomplished in his first 32 races (his 32nd career start was the 1994 Daytona 500), the results are eerily similar. Consider their totals:

Wins: Gordon 0; Elliott 0

Runner-up finishes: Gordon 2; Elliott 2

Top-five finishes: Gordon 8; Elliott 8

Top-10 finishes: Gordon 12; Elliott 14

Poles: Gordon 1; Elliott 2

Laps led: Gordon 237; Elliott 238

Gordon scored his first career victory in the 1994 Coca-Cola 600. That was Gordon’s 42nd career series start.

Will Elliott beat that?

RESOUNDING DAY

Although Hendrick Motorsports saw its winless drought reach 22 races — tying its third-longest drought in team history — there was much for the organization to feel good about.

Three of its four drivers finished in the top 10 and its cars led 193 of 270 laps.

Chase Elliott led 75 laps and finished third.

Kasey Kahne finished seventh for his third consecutive top-10 finish.

Alex Bowman, driving the No. 88 in place of Dale Earnhardt Jr., finished a career-best 10th.

Jimmie Johnson led a race-high 118 laps but finished 12th after a speeding penalty on pit road late.

WHAT HARKENS AHEAD?

One of the fascinating aspects about the inaugural Chase in the Camping World Truck Series and Xfinity Series is that no one is quite sure what to expect.

This weekend completed the 12-driver lineup for Xfinity and eight-driver field for the Truck series. Their playoffs begin this week (Trucks in New Hampshire and Xfinity in Kentucky).

While many competitors professed excitement about the tracks in their Chase, some talked about being leery of the aggression surely to be seen in the coming races — just as it has in the Sprint Cup Chase, leading to driver confrontations on and off the track each of the previous two seasons of the elimination-style format.

“It’s going to be very interesting to see how everybody races,’’ said two-time Truck series champion Matt Crafton. “It’s going to bring a lot of different characters.’’

Said Timothy Peters: “I guess the unknown is that the Trucks are already aggressive anyway and the Chase is adding that to boot. The unknown is how many people want to be play bumper cars.’’

There’s also that feeling among some in the Xfinity Series, especially with five of the seven races on 1.5-mile speedways. Track position will be critical.

“I feel like restarts are going to be really important,’’ Brennan Poole said.

Justin Allgaier said aggression could be a key in the Chase but not how much.

“The aggression level is really high right now,’’ he said. “I don’t think it will elevate a whole lot, but I think you’re going to have to manage that through the Chase. You watch a guy get too aggressive and get himself in trouble, then you’re going to have to back yourself down to make sure that you are going to capitalize.’’

Most drivers anticipate the aggression will increase as it gets closer to the championship in Miami.

“Most of these young kids understand the Chase format because they’ve watched it,’’ Brendan Gaughan said. “The problem is understanding it. They see John Hunter Nemechek do what he did a couple of weeks ago (vs. Cole Custer ). They see Ryan Newman at Phoenix (move Kyle Larson out of the way two years ago to reach the final).

“They see all the exciting things. You can make the Chase pretty exciting.’’

PIT STOPS

— Martin Truex Jr. had three wins in his first 369 Sprint Cup starts. He has three wins in his last 27 Cup starts.

— Denny Hamlin’s sixth-place finish extended his career-best streak of consecutive top-10 finishes to nine races.

— Trevor Bayne was Roush Fenway Racing’s top-finishing driver Sunday at Chicagoland. He placed 23rd.

— Clint Bowyer finished 22nd for the third consecutive race.

— Austin Dillon (14th) has placed between 12th and 16th in each of the last four races.

— Jimmie Johnson led 118 laps Sunday. He had led 120 laps in the previous 22 races combined.

— Through 27 races, Kasey Kahne has led 0 laps this season.

— Tony Stewart (16th) has failed to finish in the top 15 in each of the last five races.

Chase tactics or accident? Martin Truex Jr. questions Kevin Harvick bumping him

Winner Martin Truex Jr. said Kevin Harvick hit him at one point during Sunday’s race at Chicagoland Speedway and questioned Harvick’s intention.

“Harvick ran into us and bent our fender, I think on purpose, and we had to come back from that,’’ Truex said after the race.

Truex later told NBC Sports that he wasn’t aware they were racing to be the first car a lap down at the time.

“I was ahead of him on the restart, he caught me,’’ Truex said. “Just going down the straightaway and he just hit me in the left rear. I don’t know why he did it. I don’t know if it was intentional. I don’t know what it was.

“Typically if you run into somebody on the straightaway it’s on purpose, but I don’t know if it is or not, so I guess I’ll just have to see what he says or what he said about it. I haven’t talked to him yet, so I don’t know. It just could have been a mistake. Maybe I came off the wall, I don’t think I did. Felt like I was going straight and got hit. Trying to figure that out.

“Fortunately, it didn’t screw us too bad. I had a tire rub on the left rear, and I was really nervous we were going to get a flat tire. Fortunately, we didn’t because we didn’t need another issue to ruin our day.’’

Harvick did not answer questions from reporters as he walked away from his car after the race.

LATE PIT STOP PROPELS TRUEX JR. TO CHICAGOLAND WIN

Martin Truex Jr. won the race off pit road on the final green-flag pit stop of the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 400, sparking him to the win at Chicagoland Speedway on Sunday.

The speedy stop propelled Truex past rookie Chase Elliott, who had led 75 laps until the caution came out on Lap 262 of the 270-lap overtime race. The race was the first of 10-race Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup.

Joey Logano came up second in the No. 22 Team Penske Ford.

Elliott in the No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet, Ryan Blaney in the No. 21 Wood Brothers Racing Ford and Brad Keselowski in the No. 2 Team Penske Ford rounded out the top five.

Denny Hamlin, the defending race winner, finished sixth.

Kyle Busch, the reigning series champ, finished eighth.

Chase drivers Kevin Harvick and Kyle Larson were saddled with obstacles to overcome before the race even started when both were sent to the rear for modifications to their cars after qualifying. Harvick had qualified fourth, while Larson was to start 10th. Harvick quickly worked his way into the top 10, but went a lap down when he came in for a green-flag pit stop when a caution came out. He fought to return to the lead lap for much of the rest of the race; he finished 20th.

The 270-lap race tied the track-low with four cautions and featured nine different leaders. Jimmie Johnson led all drivers with 118 laps led. Johnson was slapped with a penalty for speeding on pit road late in the race, that pushed him back to a 12th-place finish.

The Sprint Cup Series heads to New Hampshire Motor Speedway next weekend for the continuation of the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup in the New England 300 (Sept. 25, 2 p.m. ET, NBCSN, PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

CHASE FOR THE NASCAR SPRINT CUP TIMELINE: 2016

With the Sprint Cup Series postseason in full swing, stay on top of all news concerning the 2016 Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup.

Stewart, Newman meet with NASCAR

After harsh words were exchanged at Richmond, Tony Stewart and Ryan Newman met with NASCAR officials at Chicagoland Speedway, and both say they are ready to move on from their altercation. | Read more

Harvick: 'Expect the unexpected' in the Chase

Drivers talked about racing hard and the intensity of the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup during Ready. Set. Chase. launch activities at Chicago. Kevin Harvick talks about the wide-open nature of the competition and Brad Keselowski thinks fans can expect some bumps, saying, "That's just how racing is going to be. We don't have to play drama queen for everything."

NASCAR updates rules for Chase

Rules updates announced the Wednesday before the first race of the 2016 Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup at Chicagoland give competition officials the power to issue more stringent rulings on technical infractions involving post-race laser inspections and lug nuts.

Five to Watch: Potential Chase rivalries

NASCAR.com's George Winkler talks the biggest feuds that could explode come playoff time.

Dissecting the chippiness

Tensions were high at different points of the regular-season finale at Richmond. Will that carry over to the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup? Tony Stewart, Brad Keselowski and others offer their thoughts.

Contrasting circumstances

While the sun is setting on Tony Stewart's NASCAR Sprint Cup Series career as a driver, Chase Elliott's is just getting started. The three-time champion and the Sunoco Rookie of the Year contender share a unique relationship.

Grabbing the bull

Kevin Harvick explains his infamous tweet of a bull going wild and what it means for his competitors in the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup.

Getting social

Chase drivers will have their Twitter handles on on the windshield of their NASCAR Sprint Cup Series rides during the Round of 16 in the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup. | Read more | Track the social buzz | @nascarcasm: What should Twitterless Edwards do?

Heads up: Chicagoland weekend

Want weather updates, staff picks, top story lines for the Chicagoland weekend? NASCAR.com has got you covered. | Read more | Fantasy outlooks for top drivers at Chicagoland

Cain: Don't forget Larson in most wide-open Chase in history

NASCAR.com's Holly Cain discusses Kyle Larson as a title contender and recognizes 2016 as the year with the most interesting Chase field.

Meet the 16 crew chiefs in the 2016 Chase

No one plays a greater role in a driver's success than the crew chief. They're the ones standing atop the pit box, making the calls on when to pit and talking their drivers through strategy.

Predicting who will advance to the Round of 12

NASCAR.com's George Winkler talks Chase predictions and has the stats and numbers to back it up.

Drivers talk Chase Across America

The 16-driver Chase field heads to various places across America before the playoffs officially begin at Chicagoland.

Chase by the numbers: Chicagoland

Here are some useful facts before the Chase begins at Chicagoland Speedway.

Veterans, rookies soak in Chase berth

Kenny Bruce discusses Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, Austin Dillon and Chris Buescher as they enter their first Chase. And 2014 Sprint Cup Series champion Kevin Harvick offers some profound insight from someone who has been in playoff mode many times.

NASCAR.com Power Rankings

Following his Richmond win, Denny Hamlin moves up to first in the pre-Chicago Power Rankings. See how the rest of the Chase field fared.

Pit crew power rankings for the Chase

This year's Chase Grid is loaded with talented pit crews. Take a look and see how PitTalks.com ranks the top 16.

Chase 101: Everything You Need to Know

Need a refresher on how the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup works? You're covered.

Bruce: Toyota the Chase favorites? Absolutely

NASCAR.com's Kenny Bruce discusses the pre-playoff favorites: The Joe Gibbs Racing quartet as well as Furniture Row Racing's team.

First-time Chasers eager for opportunity

First time Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series drivers Austin Dillon, Chris Buescher, Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson talk about trying to capitalize on their championship opportunity.

Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup drivers

See every driver in the Chase field with a quick season recap, Chase history, best Chase track and worst Chase track stats.

Chase for the Sprint Cup Series grid

Before the Chase opener at Chicagoland Speedway, see where each wheelman in the 16-driver field stacks up.

TY DILLON SUBS FOR REGAN SMITH AT CHICAGOLAND

With Regan Smith still in North Carolina due to the impending birth of his second child, Ty Dillon will pilot the No. 7 Chevrolet for Tommy Baldwin Racing in Sunday's NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 400 at Chicagoland Speedway (2:30 p.m. ET, NBCSN, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), the team announced Sunday morning.

Dillon has practiced all weekend in the No. 7 as Smith flew back to North Carolina to be with wife Megan.

Smith has made all 26 starts in the No. 7 so far this year with two top-10 finishes. Dillon has made eight starts this season in the Sprint Cup Series and served as a relief driver for Tony Stewart at Talladega in the spring.

Dillon is currently a regular in the NASCAR XFINITY Series and will participate in that series' seven-race XFINITY Series Chase, which begins next weekend at Kentucky Speedway.

Smith has taken to Twitter the past few days to keep fans updated on his status. Here are his latest posts.

ERIK JONES HOLDS OFF LARSON TO WIN AT CHICAGOLAND

Holding off a fast-charging Kyle Larson in the closing laps of Saturday's XFINTY Series' Drive for Safety 300, Erik Jones took his No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota to Victory Lane in the regular season finale at Chicagoland Speedway. Jones took the lead for good from JR Motorsports' Elliott Sadler with less than 10 laps remaining in the 200-lap event to post his fourth XFINITY Series win of the season.

Larson crossed the start-finish line second in his No. 42 Chevrolet, while Sadler came up third in the No. 1 Chevrolet. Joe Gibbs Racing's Daniel Suarez and JR Motorsports' Justin Allgaier completed the top 10.

Saturday's race at Chicagoland marked the final race before the inaugural XFINITY Series Chase playoffs, officially setting the 12-car field. Jones came out on top of the Chase Grid, followed by Sadler, Suarez, Allgaier, Ty Dillon, Brendan Gauaghan, Brennan Poole, Brandon Jones, Darrell Wallace Jr., Ryan Reed, Blake Koch and Ryan Sieg.

Friday night's Camping World Truck Series winner Kyle Busch nearly made it two-for-two at Chicagoland, dominating with a race-high 154 laps led. But a blown tire at Lap 182 sent Busch's No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota spinning and left him with little time to rebound, resulting in a 13th-place finish.

Reed brought out the fifth caution of the afternoon when his No. 16 Roush Fenway Racing Ford made contact with the wall after getting close to Larson's No. 42 Chevrolet. Having sustained right-front damage, the team elected to bring the car to the garage for repairs and Reed was ultimately scored 32nd.

The XFINITY Series returns to the track Sept. 24 at Kentucky Speedway (8 p.m. ET, NBCSN/PRN/SiriusXM) for the first race in the Chase.

This story will be updated.

Preview Show: Chicago

Marty Snider and Chris Rice preview the upcoming weekend at Chicagoland Speedway as drivers prepare to kickoff the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup.

Pondering the Chase: Five questions about the playoffs

Trust us, NBC Sports’ Nate Ryan and Dustin Long get along even though they don’t always see eye-to-eye about the upcoming Chase for the Sprint Cup.

With the playoffs set to begin Sunday at Chicagoland Speedway on NBCSN, Ryan and Long tackle some of the key issues and project what they think will happen.

Here’s how they see the Chase unfolding:

Which driver are you going to watch closely in this Chase?

NATE: Jimmie Johnson. Last season, the six-time series champion entered as the top seed. This year, some are picking him to exit in the first round for the second consecutive season. Johnson hasn’t seemed comfortable in the first two years of the revamped elimination playoffs, but reaching the championship round for the first time would signify more than just a sense of acclimation. It also might quell the speculation of whether he and crew chief Chad Knaus still can build a championship-caliber team as effortlessly as it annually seemed for the No. 48 from 2006-13.

DUSTIN: Kurt Busch. He started the season strong, scoring 14 top-10 finishes in the first 16 races. In the last 10 races, though, he’s had only three top-10 finishes. So which Busch will we see in the Chase? Will it be the one who was consistent and strong early in the season, or will it be the one that has struggled lately?

First driver confrontation among Chase competitors will be between …

NATE: Brad Keselowski and Matt Kenseth. If Kenseth is several laps down, the odds are nil that he will wreck another Team Penske driver from the lead. But battles for position are fair game, and Kenseth has the bitter memory of the bump by Joey Logano at Kansas Speedway last year. Keselowski antagonized Kenseth at Richmond, the latest skirmish in a long-running feud that seems primed to flare again at Chicagoland, New Hampshire or Dover – all tracks where both drivers have wins.

DUSTIN: Nobody had Kevin Harvick and Jimmie Johnson last year at Chicagoland Speedway. Who would have guessed in 2014 that Matt Kenseth would have gone after Brad Keselowski at Charlotte? The point is friction develops between drivers running near the front or battling for the lead.

Harvick and Carl Edwards rank third and fourth respectively in laps led. They have a history (recall that shoving incident in 2008 at Charlotte). They’ve both gone to at least the third round in each of the past two Chases. Harvick made it to the championship round each time; Edwards did not. I’d watch these two because they’ll likely be around each other throughout the Chase.

Can Kevin Harvick win with his pit crew?

NATE: Yes. The Richmond race was a small sample size, yet there was marked improvement. This team has been off its game at some inopportune times this season, but Harvick has been the best driver on the circuit in more than two seasons at Stewart-Haas Racing. If crew chief Rodney Childers continues to prepare top-notch cars, Harvick can overcome any pit crew woes through sheer force of will at least once per round.

DUSTIN: Yes. Jimmie Johnson won the 2010 title after crew chief Chad Knaus changed the entire pit crew in the middle of a race. The pressure will be on Harvick’s crew, just as it has in the past. The challenge is keeping up with the Joe Gibbs Racing crews, who have been fast all season and not had many mistakes. This pit crew needs to focus on consistency. If it can do that, Harvick should have a fast enough car to stay near the front and that’s what one needs to advance in this format.

Who wins the championship?

NATE: Denny Hamlin. No other driver is more acutely aware of the many ways in which a championship can be lost. Hamlin, who has raced for a title in Miami three times since his rookie season a decade ago, is over the sting of 2010’s collapse. The lessons still remain fresh, though, and it’s been evident in his calm this season. He has been locked into the playoffs since his Daytona 500 victory, but there were many chances to panic when the No. 11 team got off to a slow start under new crew chief Mike Wheeler. Hamlin stayed steady as Wheeler found his footing, and that composure is indicative of why a battle-tested veteran finally will become a champion in his 11th season.

DUSTIN: Kevin Harvick. Even with questions about his pit crew, this team has consistently been the only one to challenge the Toyotas all season. Harvick also has been through the battles of the Chase — from needing to win at Dover to advance last year to fighting through to win the 2014 crown. Experience can’t keep a car part from breaking but it can help a driver in tough situations. Experience will lead Harvick to the final round for the third consecutive year.

Who is your dark horse to win the title?

NATE: Kyle Larson. After getting over the hump with the victory at Michigan, he motored through Darlington (third) and Richmond (second) with renewed vigor and a swagger that was striking for the Chip Ganassi Racing driver. Larson relishes his team being the underdog, but it won’t be if he reaches the title round. Homestead-Miami Speedway is his favorite track for good reason, and a championship would be a real possibility if he can scrape through the first three rounds.

DUSTIN: Tony Stewart. Look, no one figured Stewart had a chance to win the 2011 title and he did. Certainly, this is a different time and the five years since have aged Stewart, but he’s wise enough and shrewd enough not to give a darn about any of that. In his final 10 races, he’ll just go race. This team will have to pick up its performance, but what a ride it could be for Stewart.

Chase Analytics: Kevin Harvick enters the playoffs as favorite

Kevin Harvick starts the Chase with a 34 percent probability of being the 2016 champion.

Just like last year, with the help of Andrew Maness from the racing analytics firm Pit Rho, we ran the numbers to show every driver’s shot of moving through each round of the Chase. As usual, the mathematical model was designed by both Maness and myself, taking into account past driver performance to predict future results. By running 100,000 simulations of how the rest of the season might play out, we can see what the most likely outcomes are.

Technically speaking, every one of the 16 drivers has a chance of winning the title. Even that 0.0 for Chris Buescher is actually 0.016 percent. That means if he ran his 10 best races, while everybody else ran less than their 10 best, he could pull off the upset.

2016-chase-probs

At the top of the list, you see the usual culprits, like Harvick, Brad Keselowski, and Denny Hamlin. Remember that the Chase sets up weird incentives: You need to win or at least run consistently to move through the rounds. And making it through the rounds isn’t the same as winning the title.

Notice the difference between Kyle Busch and Jamie McMurray. They have very similar chances of advancing to the second round (Busch at 81 percent and McMurray at 78 percent). But Busch has a real solid shot at winning the title (6.8 percent) while McMurray’s is much closer to zero.

That’s because we know Busch can win races, but he also could blow up at any time. We can’t trust Busch to guarantee a second round spot, but if he does make it, then all of a sudden he could get hot and win it all. Busch only has the ninth-best chance of making it past round one, yet he has the fifth-best chance of winning the title. That’s the uncertainty I’m talking about.

Martin Truex Jr. is the opposite. He has a 90 percent chance of making it past the first round, but only a five percent title chance. He’s a consistent driver in the top 10 but has trouble sealing the deal on winning races. Notice his 90 percent chance to make the second round is almost the same as Denny Hamlin’s chance, but they have significant differences in their title shots.

This year’s loss of Jeff Gordon and Dale Earnhardt Jr. from the Chase has opened the door for fresher names to make it in, like Chip Ganassi’s Kyle Larson.

“If you had asked me in April, there’s no way that I would have predicted that both Ganassi cars would be running so well at this point in the season,” said Dr. Josh Browne, a former NASCAR race engineer and now co-founder at Pit Rho. “It’s a remarkable turnaround in such a short period of time. The model seems to capture this, and we give both cars a good chance of making it to the next round.”

Of course, you have to remember that these numbers are good for this week and this week only. As soon as the next race is completed, new performance results will change the data. As we know, 15 drivers are eventually going to see their title hopes dwindle away to zero by November.

Eric Chemi runs data journalism for our sister network CNBC, including a heavy dose of sports analytics. Prior to that, his NASCAR forecasts have been on Sprint Cup television broadcasts, and he has consulted for Sprint Cup teams on strategy, statistics, data, and analytics. He graduated with an engineering degree from MIT.

NASCAR INTRODUCES RULES CHANGES FOR CHASE

NASCAR introduced rules changes for the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup playoffs on Wednesday, giving competition officials the power to issue more stringent rulings on technical infractions involving post-race laser inspections and lug nuts.

The developments were announced just days before the series visits Chicagoland Speedway for Sunday's Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 400 (2:30 p.m. ET, NBCSN, MRN, SiriusXM), the opening event in the 10-race Chase playoffs.

Similar changes, where applicable, will also be in place for the inaugural Chase events in NASCAR's XFINITY Series and Camping World Truck Series, which get underway in two weeks, at Kentucky and New Hampshire, respectively.

The changes allow NASCAR officials to strip race-winning teams of the benefits associated with a Chase victory, which include the automatic advancement into the next elimination round and any tiebreaker implications, should those teams fail the post-race lug-nut check or the post-race Laser Inspection Station (LIS) platform.

Previously, lug-nut infractions have resulted in a one-race suspension and a fine for the crew chief while LIS failures have carried a point deduction in the drivers' and owners' championship points, in addition to the crew chief fine.

Going into the Chase, post-race failure of the LIS platform now will be deemed a P4 level penalty if a vehicle's rear toe measurements exceed the allowed measurements on both sides.

In the Sprint Cup Series, the first violation would result in an encumbered finishing position, the loss of 35 championship driver and owner points, as well as a three-race suspension and $65,000 fine for the crew chief.

In the XFINITY Series, the penalties would be the same, but the crew chief fine would be $20,000.

The LIS platform is not a part of the NCWTS inspection process.

The penalties will be the same as those for an LIS infraction if a vehicle is found to have 17 or fewer lug nuts in place following the completion of the event (in Sprint Cup, XFINITY or Camping World Truck).

"The changes are made to assure that we have a level playing field and make sure that there's not a carrot out there for the team to have excessive violations when it comes to lug nuts and the LIS post-race measurements," Scott Miller, NASCAR Senior Vice President of Competition, told NASCAR.com. "As we worked with those penalties during the season we realized we probably needed to have a little bit more in place as Chase time rolled around.

"The Chase obviously changes a lot of scenarios for both NASCAR and the teams; it's ramped up the intensity and there is a lot of scrutiny, as there is every week on everything (involving) technical infractions. This is really just a matter of us putting something in place so that should something happen, we have a means to effectively deal with it."

Miller noted that the "encumbered finish" is already a part of the NASCAR rulebook. "This just adds a little bit of definition to how we will use it moving forward," he said.

NASCAR officials cracked down on lug nut penalties with new rules this spring, making sure the wheel is securely fastened on all five studs at a pit-road checkpoint after the race. At least five teams have been found in violation during post-race inspection, including those of drivers Kevin Harvick (Stewart-Haas Racing) and Kyle Busch (Joe Gibbs Racing).

The LIS platform has been used to measure cars' chassis with precision since the start of the 2013 season. The majority of failures this year have centered on rear toe alignment.

Six Sprint Cup Series drivers and teams have been penalized this year for failing the LIS portion of the post-race inspection process -- Kasey Kahne, Hendrick Motorsports No. 5 Chevrolet (Dover); Matt Kenseth, Joe Gibbs Racing No. 20 Toyota (New Hampshire), Brad Keselowski, Team Penske No. 2 Ford (Michigan), Kyle Larson, Chip Ganassi Racing No. 42 Chevrolet (Darlington), Ryan Newman, Richard Childress Racing No. 31 Chevrolet (Darlington) and Martin Truex Jr., Furniture Row Racing No. 78 Toyota (Richmond).

Miller said he expects the rules to remain in place for the 2017 season as well.

LIS failures during pre-race inspection result in written warnings, with the potential for lost track time after a team's fourth violation.

Should an infraction involving post-race LIS or lug nut inspection occur during the championship race at Homestead for any of the three series, the finish of the team found to be in violation would not count toward the determination of the series champion, or for any other positions that might be determined via tiebreakers.

Busch is the defending Sprint Cup Series champion while Harvick was the first to win a title under the current Chase format, which debuted in 2014.

These latest changes were made in collaboration with industry partners. "It should be no surprise to anybody where we landed," Miller said.

"As we convened with some of the team principals and competition guys, it became pretty obvious that we needed to do something like this."

NASCAR alters penalty for lug nut and Laser Inspection violations

NASCAR announced Wednesday increased penalties, including not allowing a win to count toward advancement in the Chase, for teams that fail the Laser Inspection Station by a significant amount or do not have enough lug nuts secure at the end of the race.

The changes are effective immediately. Teams are scheduled to receive the bulletin on this at 4 p.m. ET. Only the Sprint Cup and Xfinity Series use the Laser Inspection Station after the race. The lug nut policy would be for all three national series.

If a winning team fails the Laser Inspection Station by a significant amount or has more than three of 20 lug nuts not secure after the race, it will still keep the win but be penalized so severely that it could hurt their chances of advancing in the Chase or making the Chase.

In such cases, NASCAR would declare an encumbered race finish.

An encumbered race finish has the following effects, as applicable:

If a win, that finish would not count when determining Chase eligibility, eligibility for advancement in the Chase, eligibility for non-championship events such as the Unlimited and All-Star Race.
Regardless of the finishing position, that finish does not count when determining the champion and three runners-up in the final race of the Chase; tie-breakers in Section 17 and as those tie-breakers may be applied relative to finishing positions elsewhere
An encumbered race finish is not a disqualification.
The finishing position is still shown on the Official Results
A team would face such penalties if more than three of the 20 lug nuts on its car were not secure at the end of the race. In such a case, a team also would face a $65,000 fine, loss of 35 driver and owner points and the crew chief will be suspended three races.

With the Laser Inspection Station, if the rear toe is equal to or greater than 0.86 on one side and equal to and greater than 0.56 on the opposite side, it would be a P4 penalty and the team would face a $65,000 fine, loss of 35 driver and owner points and the crew chief would be suspended three races.

“We want to ensure that everything was in check with the LIS and the lug nuts, which are both new rules for this year,’’ said Scott Miller, senior vice president of competition for NASCAR, on the increased penalties. “We wanted to make sure that the door wasn’t open for a team to really take advantage of the rules. The level of infraction that it takes to end up with an encumbered finish, we haven’t seen that. It would certainly be egregious from everything we’ve seen before. We want to get these things in place to ensure we have a level playing field and nobody tries to take advantage of the current rules.’’

One change NASCAR announced was a lessening of a penalty. Previously, a team’s crew chief was suspended for one race if the team had one lug nut not secure after the race. Now, a crew chief won’t be suspended unless there are two of the 20 lug nuts on the car not secure.

“That was kind of a one-tier approach to assure that the garage area complied with a pretty serious penalty for a crew chief suspension,’’ Miller said of the previous penalty. “As we looked at a more global approach and deeper, what we proposed here and what we enacted here is a lot more the penalty fitting the crime.’’

Who’s Hot and Cold at the start of the Chase for the Sprint Cup

Once the Chase for the Sprint Cup starts, only two tracks remain on the schedule that teams haven’t competed at yet – Chicagoland Speedway and Homestead-Miami Speedway.

Homestead closes out the postseason while Chicagoland has kicked off the Chase since 2011.

At Chicagoland, one of five 1.5-mile tracks in the Chase, qualifying has had little bearing on who finishes the day in victory lane.

Fifteen race have been held at Chicagoland since 2001. Only once has a winner started in the top five (Kyle Busch, 2008). That year, qualifying was canceled. Just five Chicagoland winners have come from the top 10 and there’s only been one (Matt Kenseth, 10th in 2013) in the last five races.

In 2015, Denny Hamlin won from 29th. Brad Keselowski‘s two wins, in 2014 and 2012, came from 25th and 13th. Qualifying has been canceled the last two years.

Of the 16 drivers in the Chase, six have won at Chicagoland and two have won twice (Kevin Harvick and Keselowski). Tony Stewart is the all-time leader with three wins.

Here’s a look at who is hot and cold going into the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 400.

Who’s Hot

Denny Hamlin: Won at Richmond, third win of season (second in the last five races). Eighth straight top-10 finishes, the longest streak of his career. Won this race last year after leading just nine laps. Only two top fives in 10 Chicago starts.

Kevin Harvick: Finished fifth at Richmond, fourth consecutive top-five finish (matches longest streak of top-five finishes by a driver this season). Finished top 10 in 12 of the last 14 races. Has  21 top-10 finishes in 2016, most by three. Only three finishes in 2016 worst than 15th. Two-time Chicago winner (2001-2002). Top fives in two of the last three races at Chicago.

Brad Keselowski: Finished fourth at Richmond, finished in the top 10 in 13 of the last 17 races, including three wins. Top 10s in the last five races at Chicago, including two wins (2012 and 2014). Finished top 10 in 18 of the last 19 races on 1.5-mile tracks, including wins in two of the last five.

Kyle Larson: Finished second at Richmond, top-three three finishes in the last three races (longest streak of career), including a win at Michigan. Finished top six in five of the last seven races. Two starts at Chicago, finished third and seventh.

Who’s Cold

Matt Kenseth: Finished 38th, DNF accident while running in top five at Richmond last week. Has only five top-10 finishes in last 12 races. Two wins this season, Dover and New Hampshire (two of the three races in round one). Top-10 finishes including a win in three races at Chicago with Joe Gibbs Racing.

Carl Edwards: Finished in top 10 in only seven of the last 17 races after having eight top 10s and two wins in the first nine races of 2016. Five poles this season, most of 2016 and his most ever in a season. Last top-five finish was second at Kentucky in the lower downforce package for 2017. Best finish at Chicago in 11 starts is second, twice, including last year.

Tony Stewart: Finished 21st or worse in the last four races. Five top-five finishes this season, only had three total in the previous two seasons combined. Three-time Chicago winner with top-10 finishes in 10 of his 14 starts. Finished 18th and 25th in the last two Chicago races.

Kurt Busch: Finished eighth at Richmond, only third top-10 finish in the last 10 races; finished top 10 in 14 of the first 16 races of 2016. Top-10 finishes in the last three races at Chicago, including his best finish of third last year.

Other notes of interesting entering Sunday’s races

The driver leading the most laps won only one of the last six races at Chicagoland (Matt Kenseth in 2013).
Chicagoland is one of three active tracks that Roush Fenway Racing has not won at (Indianapolis and Kentucky are the other two).
Four drivers have won the six races on 1.5-mile tracks in 2016: Kyle Busch and Brad Keselowski have two wins
each; Jimmie Johnson and Martin Truex Jr have one win each.
Kurt Busch and Kevin Harvick are the only drivers that have finished in the top 10 in all six races at 1.5-mile tracks in 2016.
Kyle Larson and Chris Buescher are only Chase drivers without a top-10 finish at a 1.5-mile track this season.

Road Block: Pit road speeding could keep Chase drivers from advancing

In a playoff format where a bad finish can keep a driver from advancing and cost them a championship, NASCAR’s increased enforcement of pit road speeding could play a significant role in the Chase.

NASCAR has enforced the additional timing lines on pit road in the past seven races — since the Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway in late July. Speeding penalties are up 86 percent compared to the seven races before the change was made.

Drivers can recover from speeding penalties — provided they happen early enough in a race. Chris Buescher won the shortened Pocono race after he was penalized for speeding. A speeding penalty late, though, can cost a driver several spots and that could be the difference in advancing to the next round of the Chase.

With the playoffs beginning this weekend at Chicagoland Speedway, here’s a look at drivers who have had the most speeding penalties on pit road this year.

Speeding penalties for all drivers with five or more infractions in 2016

(CHASE DRIVERS IN ALL CAPS)

8 – Denny Hamlin

7 – Kyle Larson

7 – Ryan Newman

6 – Austin Dillon

6 – Regan Smith

6 – Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

5 – Chase Elliott

5 – Jimmie Johnson

5 – Greg Biffle

5 – Michael McDowell

5 – Paul Menard

Speeding Penalties for all Chase Drivers this season

8 – Denny Hamlin

7 – Kyle Larson

6 – Austin Dillon

5 – Chase Elliott

5 – Jimmie Johnson

4 – Brad Keselowski

4 – Jamie McMurray

4 – Martin Truex Jr.

3 – Carl Edwards

3 – Kevin Harvick

3 – Tony Stewart

2 – Chris Buescher

2 – Kyle Busch

1 – Kurt Busch

1 – Matt Kenseth

1 – Joey Logano

Speeding Penalties in Last 7 races by Chase Drivers

(Since additional timing lines added on pit road)

3 – Jimmie Johnson

2 – Chase Elliott

2 – Denny Hamlin

2 – Jamie McMurray

2 – Martin Truex Jr.

1 – Chris Buescher

1 – Austin Dillon

1 – Kevin Harvick

1 – Brad Keselowski

1- Kyle Larson

1 – Joey Logano

1 – Tony Stewart

0 – Kurt Busch

0 – Kyle Busch

0 – Carl Edwards

0 – Matt Kenseth

One last shot to make the NCWTS Chase

Catch the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series from Chicagoland Speedway, Friday at 8pm ET on FS1 to see who makes the Chase. For more NASCAR news.