Pondering the Chase: Five questions about the playoffs

Trust us, NBC Sports’ Nate Ryan and Dustin Long get along even though they don’t always see eye-to-eye about the upcoming Chase for the Sprint Cup.

With the playoffs set to begin Sunday at Chicagoland Speedway on NBCSN, Ryan and Long tackle some of the key issues and project what they think will happen.

Here’s how they see the Chase unfolding:

Which driver are you going to watch closely in this Chase?

NATE: Jimmie Johnson. Last season, the six-time series champion entered as the top seed. This year, some are picking him to exit in the first round for the second consecutive season. Johnson hasn’t seemed comfortable in the first two years of the revamped elimination playoffs, but reaching the championship round for the first time would signify more than just a sense of acclimation. It also might quell the speculation of whether he and crew chief Chad Knaus still can build a championship-caliber team as effortlessly as it annually seemed for the No. 48 from 2006-13.

DUSTIN: Kurt Busch. He started the season strong, scoring 14 top-10 finishes in the first 16 races. In the last 10 races, though, he’s had only three top-10 finishes. So which Busch will we see in the Chase? Will it be the one who was consistent and strong early in the season, or will it be the one that has struggled lately?

First driver confrontation among Chase competitors will be between …

NATE: Brad Keselowski and Matt Kenseth. If Kenseth is several laps down, the odds are nil that he will wreck another Team Penske driver from the lead. But battles for position are fair game, and Kenseth has the bitter memory of the bump by Joey Logano at Kansas Speedway last year. Keselowski antagonized Kenseth at Richmond, the latest skirmish in a long-running feud that seems primed to flare again at Chicagoland, New Hampshire or Dover – all tracks where both drivers have wins.

DUSTIN: Nobody had Kevin Harvick and Jimmie Johnson last year at Chicagoland Speedway. Who would have guessed in 2014 that Matt Kenseth would have gone after Brad Keselowski at Charlotte? The point is friction develops between drivers running near the front or battling for the lead.

Harvick and Carl Edwards rank third and fourth respectively in laps led. They have a history (recall that shoving incident in 2008 at Charlotte). They’ve both gone to at least the third round in each of the past two Chases. Harvick made it to the championship round each time; Edwards did not. I’d watch these two because they’ll likely be around each other throughout the Chase.

Can Kevin Harvick win with his pit crew?

NATE: Yes. The Richmond race was a small sample size, yet there was marked improvement. This team has been off its game at some inopportune times this season, but Harvick has been the best driver on the circuit in more than two seasons at Stewart-Haas Racing. If crew chief Rodney Childers continues to prepare top-notch cars, Harvick can overcome any pit crew woes through sheer force of will at least once per round.

DUSTIN: Yes. Jimmie Johnson won the 2010 title after crew chief Chad Knaus changed the entire pit crew in the middle of a race. The pressure will be on Harvick’s crew, just as it has in the past. The challenge is keeping up with the Joe Gibbs Racing crews, who have been fast all season and not had many mistakes. This pit crew needs to focus on consistency. If it can do that, Harvick should have a fast enough car to stay near the front and that’s what one needs to advance in this format.

Who wins the championship?

NATE: Denny Hamlin. No other driver is more acutely aware of the many ways in which a championship can be lost. Hamlin, who has raced for a title in Miami three times since his rookie season a decade ago, is over the sting of 2010’s collapse. The lessons still remain fresh, though, and it’s been evident in his calm this season. He has been locked into the playoffs since his Daytona 500 victory, but there were many chances to panic when the No. 11 team got off to a slow start under new crew chief Mike Wheeler. Hamlin stayed steady as Wheeler found his footing, and that composure is indicative of why a battle-tested veteran finally will become a champion in his 11th season.

DUSTIN: Kevin Harvick. Even with questions about his pit crew, this team has consistently been the only one to challenge the Toyotas all season. Harvick also has been through the battles of the Chase — from needing to win at Dover to advance last year to fighting through to win the 2014 crown. Experience can’t keep a car part from breaking but it can help a driver in tough situations. Experience will lead Harvick to the final round for the third consecutive year.

Who is your dark horse to win the title?

NATE: Kyle Larson. After getting over the hump with the victory at Michigan, he motored through Darlington (third) and Richmond (second) with renewed vigor and a swagger that was striking for the Chip Ganassi Racing driver. Larson relishes his team being the underdog, but it won’t be if he reaches the title round. Homestead-Miami Speedway is his favorite track for good reason, and a championship would be a real possibility if he can scrape through the first three rounds.

DUSTIN: Tony Stewart. Look, no one figured Stewart had a chance to win the 2011 title and he did. Certainly, this is a different time and the five years since have aged Stewart, but he’s wise enough and shrewd enough not to give a darn about any of that. In his final 10 races, he’ll just go race. This team will have to pick up its performance, but what a ride it could be for Stewart.

Xfinity Series Spotlight: Owner Rod Sieg

If you’re ever trying to spot Rod Sieg in the Xfinity Series garage, just look for the man full of energy and radiating positivity.

Sieg is the owner of Ryan Sieg Racing and the No. 39 car, driven by his son, Ryan. The family-owned business has been successful in NASCAR, moving from the Camping World Truck to Xfinity Series. They are one race away from qualifying for the inaugural Xfinity Series Chase.

Ryan sits 12th on the Chase grid entering Chicago this weekend. As for Rod, whether the team makes the playoffs, one would be hard-pressed to find him not having fun.

“Nobody comes to the racetrack to finish last, do they?” Sieg asks NBC Sports. “Life has been good. I’ve had fun, and everywhere I go I have fun. I don’t want to be in a bad mood. Even after Bristol (where Ryan finished 37th) I didn’t get upset – we just left early, and it was a quiet ride home.”

Sieg’s life in business started in 1982 when he and his father-in-law, Colie Wilson, co-founded S&W Towing. Based out of Tucker, Georgia, where the family originates, Wilson was the one who had an affinity for racing, which rubbed off on Sieg.

“We’d race go-karts and all that stuff, and then we bought some Late Models and got into those then decided to go Truck racing,” Sieg said. “We were going to run Trucks and Xfinity, and heck we ran so good we were like, ‘Why are we going to go Truck racing when we can go over here?’ That’s how it just goes, and it’s been an easy progression.”

Sieg has fielded entries in NASCAR since 2009. And just like the sport, he admits he lives his life at full-throttle.

“That’s the only way to live, isn’t it?”

The following Q&A has been edited and condensed.

NBC Sports: Is the team shop still based in Georgia at the S&W Towing location?

Sieg: It was until this last year. I could walk out back from my office and go to the garage and work right in the garage. But it got too small. We’ve moved to a different location and run a business out of there that is a towing service, but we built a big warehouse up there. It’s pretty nice now.

NBC Sports: How much did your father-in-law influence your decision to get into racing?

Sieg: My wife’s dad raced dirt, and I worked for a guy named Randy Couch when I was like 16, 17, 18 and he was an All-Pro champion. Ever since then we’ve been racing, and he even came over to the shop and helped us work on our Late Model cars when we ran around the Southeast. I actually tried to deter Ryan from racing; I sent him down to a guy named Wayne Anderson in Florida and said go with him. I called Wayne and said ‘I want you to be as brutal as you can on him,’ and Wayne treated him awful. Ryan would say, ‘We worked on Wayne’s cars all day, and we’d push mine out for 30 minutes, and I’d have to race Wayne.’ He’d follow him to the track, and that’s how he really got into it. He actually did good as Wayne told him, just follow me around.

Wayne Anderson raced for a long time and he was in Late Models out of Florida and Ryan would drive back and forth from Florida to our house every week, and did it by himself. I was wanting him to quit because people don’t understand how hard racing is from week to week, and he was determined to do it. I was trying to be mean as I could, I really was.

NBC Sports: Is it difficult to be both the owner of the race team and the father of the driver?

Sieg: I treat him like I would any other driver. I don’t cut him any slack, but I don’t really say much. We’ve been racing so long you don’t get real high or real low. Daytona (when Ryan finished third) I got real high! That was a high point. When you get through Daytona, and you can finish it, it’s always a good day because we’ve had two bad years of bad luck down there. Running good, but just got caught up in a wreck. Boy, when you can finish one, it just tickles you to death.

NBC Sports: Do you just oversee the operation when you come to the track or do you get involved?

Sieg: I’ll do anything they ask me. I’ll jump in and pick up tires and put them on if that’s what I need to do. I want everybody to be in a good mood because you know what, one gets in a bad mood, everybody gets in a bad mood.

NBC Sports: What is your approach or philosophy for business, seeing that you run two different ones?

Sieg: I just treat everybody the way I want to be treated. I mean, we got a guy that does nothing but polish the car, and I treat him the same way I treat the crew chief.

NBC Sports: Is the current business model in the Xfinity Series sustainable to a small team like yours?

Sieg: We’ll have to see. We haven’t got that far yet. I take it a year at a time, a race at a time. We prepare our car a week in advance, and some of these guys have their cars prepared months in advance. We haven’t mapped out anything for the future.

NBC Sports: With as outgoing and energetic as you are, do you have any other hobbies besides racing?

Sieg: We go up to the lake house all the time, I have a lake house in Georgia. We have jet skis and boats and all that and I’m constantly doing things that nearly kill me. (Crew chief Kevin Starland) rented a campsite once and we have two jet skis that are real fast, and I came in about 70 miles-per-hour and wide open. There were rocks there on the coast, and I turned the wheel real hard, and I flipped about five times. I was hiding under the water cause the jet ski flipped and they’re all running out screaming, ‘Rod, Rod, Rod!’ and I jumped out saying, I’m all right!

Chase Analytics: Kevin Harvick enters the playoffs as favorite

Kevin Harvick starts the Chase with a 34 percent probability of being the 2016 champion.

Just like last year, with the help of Andrew Maness from the racing analytics firm Pit Rho, we ran the numbers to show every driver’s shot of moving through each round of the Chase. As usual, the mathematical model was designed by both Maness and myself, taking into account past driver performance to predict future results. By running 100,000 simulations of how the rest of the season might play out, we can see what the most likely outcomes are.

Technically speaking, every one of the 16 drivers has a chance of winning the title. Even that 0.0 for Chris Buescher is actually 0.016 percent. That means if he ran his 10 best races, while everybody else ran less than their 10 best, he could pull off the upset.

2016-chase-probs

At the top of the list, you see the usual culprits, like Harvick, Brad Keselowski, and Denny Hamlin. Remember that the Chase sets up weird incentives: You need to win or at least run consistently to move through the rounds. And making it through the rounds isn’t the same as winning the title.

Notice the difference between Kyle Busch and Jamie McMurray. They have very similar chances of advancing to the second round (Busch at 81 percent and McMurray at 78 percent). But Busch has a real solid shot at winning the title (6.8 percent) while McMurray’s is much closer to zero.

That’s because we know Busch can win races, but he also could blow up at any time. We can’t trust Busch to guarantee a second round spot, but if he does make it, then all of a sudden he could get hot and win it all. Busch only has the ninth-best chance of making it past round one, yet he has the fifth-best chance of winning the title. That’s the uncertainty I’m talking about.

Martin Truex Jr. is the opposite. He has a 90 percent chance of making it past the first round, but only a five percent title chance. He’s a consistent driver in the top 10 but has trouble sealing the deal on winning races. Notice his 90 percent chance to make the second round is almost the same as Denny Hamlin’s chance, but they have significant differences in their title shots.

This year’s loss of Jeff Gordon and Dale Earnhardt Jr. from the Chase has opened the door for fresher names to make it in, like Chip Ganassi’s Kyle Larson.

“If you had asked me in April, there’s no way that I would have predicted that both Ganassi cars would be running so well at this point in the season,” said Dr. Josh Browne, a former NASCAR race engineer and now co-founder at Pit Rho. “It’s a remarkable turnaround in such a short period of time. The model seems to capture this, and we give both cars a good chance of making it to the next round.”

Of course, you have to remember that these numbers are good for this week and this week only. As soon as the next race is completed, new performance results will change the data. As we know, 15 drivers are eventually going to see their title hopes dwindle away to zero by November.

Eric Chemi runs data journalism for our sister network CNBC, including a heavy dose of sports analytics. Prior to that, his NASCAR forecasts have been on Sprint Cup television broadcasts, and he has consulted for Sprint Cup teams on strategy, statistics, data, and analytics. He graduated with an engineering degree from MIT.

NASCAR INTRODUCES RULES CHANGES FOR CHASE

NASCAR introduced rules changes for the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup playoffs on Wednesday, giving competition officials the power to issue more stringent rulings on technical infractions involving post-race laser inspections and lug nuts.

The developments were announced just days before the series visits Chicagoland Speedway for Sunday's Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 400 (2:30 p.m. ET, NBCSN, MRN, SiriusXM), the opening event in the 10-race Chase playoffs.

Similar changes, where applicable, will also be in place for the inaugural Chase events in NASCAR's XFINITY Series and Camping World Truck Series, which get underway in two weeks, at Kentucky and New Hampshire, respectively.

The changes allow NASCAR officials to strip race-winning teams of the benefits associated with a Chase victory, which include the automatic advancement into the next elimination round and any tiebreaker implications, should those teams fail the post-race lug-nut check or the post-race Laser Inspection Station (LIS) platform.

Previously, lug-nut infractions have resulted in a one-race suspension and a fine for the crew chief while LIS failures have carried a point deduction in the drivers' and owners' championship points, in addition to the crew chief fine.

Going into the Chase, post-race failure of the LIS platform now will be deemed a P4 level penalty if a vehicle's rear toe measurements exceed the allowed measurements on both sides.

In the Sprint Cup Series, the first violation would result in an encumbered finishing position, the loss of 35 championship driver and owner points, as well as a three-race suspension and $65,000 fine for the crew chief.

In the XFINITY Series, the penalties would be the same, but the crew chief fine would be $20,000.

The LIS platform is not a part of the NCWTS inspection process.

The penalties will be the same as those for an LIS infraction if a vehicle is found to have 17 or fewer lug nuts in place following the completion of the event (in Sprint Cup, XFINITY or Camping World Truck).

"The changes are made to assure that we have a level playing field and make sure that there's not a carrot out there for the team to have excessive violations when it comes to lug nuts and the LIS post-race measurements," Scott Miller, NASCAR Senior Vice President of Competition, told NASCAR.com. "As we worked with those penalties during the season we realized we probably needed to have a little bit more in place as Chase time rolled around.

"The Chase obviously changes a lot of scenarios for both NASCAR and the teams; it's ramped up the intensity and there is a lot of scrutiny, as there is every week on everything (involving) technical infractions. This is really just a matter of us putting something in place so that should something happen, we have a means to effectively deal with it."

Miller noted that the "encumbered finish" is already a part of the NASCAR rulebook. "This just adds a little bit of definition to how we will use it moving forward," he said.

NASCAR officials cracked down on lug nut penalties with new rules this spring, making sure the wheel is securely fastened on all five studs at a pit-road checkpoint after the race. At least five teams have been found in violation during post-race inspection, including those of drivers Kevin Harvick (Stewart-Haas Racing) and Kyle Busch (Joe Gibbs Racing).

The LIS platform has been used to measure cars' chassis with precision since the start of the 2013 season. The majority of failures this year have centered on rear toe alignment.

Six Sprint Cup Series drivers and teams have been penalized this year for failing the LIS portion of the post-race inspection process -- Kasey Kahne, Hendrick Motorsports No. 5 Chevrolet (Dover); Matt Kenseth, Joe Gibbs Racing No. 20 Toyota (New Hampshire), Brad Keselowski, Team Penske No. 2 Ford (Michigan), Kyle Larson, Chip Ganassi Racing No. 42 Chevrolet (Darlington), Ryan Newman, Richard Childress Racing No. 31 Chevrolet (Darlington) and Martin Truex Jr., Furniture Row Racing No. 78 Toyota (Richmond).

Miller said he expects the rules to remain in place for the 2017 season as well.

LIS failures during pre-race inspection result in written warnings, with the potential for lost track time after a team's fourth violation.

Should an infraction involving post-race LIS or lug nut inspection occur during the championship race at Homestead for any of the three series, the finish of the team found to be in violation would not count toward the determination of the series champion, or for any other positions that might be determined via tiebreakers.

Busch is the defending Sprint Cup Series champion while Harvick was the first to win a title under the current Chase format, which debuted in 2014.

These latest changes were made in collaboration with industry partners. "It should be no surprise to anybody where we landed," Miller said.

"As we convened with some of the team principals and competition guys, it became pretty obvious that we needed to do something like this."

The kid who nearly stopped Sprint Cup practice at New Hampshire Motor Speedway

Keelan Harvick has spent much of his in the social media spotlight, but the 4-year-old son of Kevin Harvick recently came close to being the focus of a news media headline.

During a Sprint Cup practice at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in July, Keelan Harvick wanted to play baseball, so DeLana Harvick took her son to a parking lot on the backstretch.

“He’s crushing the baseball and it comes this close to going over the wall on the track, and I’m freaking out,’ DeLana Harvick said with a laugh on the NASCAR on NBC podcast episode released Wednesday. “Oh my God, if they have a caution because Keelan hit a ball on the track, it’s going to be bad.”

A NASCAR official retrieved the ball, which had landed against the wall.

Crisis averted.

“They gave it back to him and said, ‘Good hit buddy!’ And I’m like, Oh God, I can imagine telling Kevin, ‘That was me. That was your son. We caused a caution,’” DeLana said. “But it doesn’t matter what’s going on. If Keelan wants to go do something, we’re going to go do it.”

In the podcast, she explains how the couple decided that because Keelan was the center of their lives, their son naturally would appear in the public sides of their existence that appears on social media.

“I didn’t know how much we’d share,” she said. “I always saw those people with kids posting all their pictures and thought, ‘Good Lord, I don’t want to see any more pictures of your kids.’ And then you have a child, and something clicks in your brain. Of course every parent thinks their kid is the cutest and funniest kid in the world but because our families don’t live with us anymore, that’s a way they can see it. You never know exactly how much you’re going to share.”

DeLana said she and Kevin might be inclined to set more boundaries with sharing their personal lives with Keelan as he gets older and more self-conscious.

“He’s already getting to the point now,” she said. “At Michigan, a camera came up and he walked behind us. He’s starting to become uncomfortable with it.

“People will come ask Keelan to sign an autograph. I tell him if you’d like to sign this, it’s OK. I never force him to do anything, take a picture or talk to anyone. It’s a little different. It’s a hard balance.”

Other topics discussed by Harvick on the podcast:

–The growth of KHI Management into a multifaceted agency representing a varied clientele;

–The transition from being focused solely on running race teams into raising a child;

–How her husband’s professional live is called by his personal life.

To listen to the full podcast, you can click below or download the episode by subscribing to it on iTunes by clicking here. The free subscription will provide automatic downloads of new episodes to your smartphone or tablet.

The podcast also is available on Stitcher, Google Play, Spotify and a host of other smartphone apps.

NASCAR alters penalty for lug nut and Laser Inspection violations

NASCAR announced Wednesday increased penalties, including not allowing a win to count toward advancement in the Chase, for teams that fail the Laser Inspection Station by a significant amount or do not have enough lug nuts secure at the end of the race.

The changes are effective immediately. Teams are scheduled to receive the bulletin on this at 4 p.m. ET. Only the Sprint Cup and Xfinity Series use the Laser Inspection Station after the race. The lug nut policy would be for all three national series.

If a winning team fails the Laser Inspection Station by a significant amount or has more than three of 20 lug nuts not secure after the race, it will still keep the win but be penalized so severely that it could hurt their chances of advancing in the Chase or making the Chase.

In such cases, NASCAR would declare an encumbered race finish.

An encumbered race finish has the following effects, as applicable:

If a win, that finish would not count when determining Chase eligibility, eligibility for advancement in the Chase, eligibility for non-championship events such as the Unlimited and All-Star Race.
Regardless of the finishing position, that finish does not count when determining the champion and three runners-up in the final race of the Chase; tie-breakers in Section 17 and as those tie-breakers may be applied relative to finishing positions elsewhere
An encumbered race finish is not a disqualification.
The finishing position is still shown on the Official Results
A team would face such penalties if more than three of the 20 lug nuts on its car were not secure at the end of the race. In such a case, a team also would face a $65,000 fine, loss of 35 driver and owner points and the crew chief will be suspended three races.

With the Laser Inspection Station, if the rear toe is equal to or greater than 0.86 on one side and equal to and greater than 0.56 on the opposite side, it would be a P4 penalty and the team would face a $65,000 fine, loss of 35 driver and owner points and the crew chief would be suspended three races.

“We want to ensure that everything was in check with the LIS and the lug nuts, which are both new rules for this year,’’ said Scott Miller, senior vice president of competition for NASCAR, on the increased penalties. “We wanted to make sure that the door wasn’t open for a team to really take advantage of the rules. The level of infraction that it takes to end up with an encumbered finish, we haven’t seen that. It would certainly be egregious from everything we’ve seen before. We want to get these things in place to ensure we have a level playing field and nobody tries to take advantage of the current rules.’’

One change NASCAR announced was a lessening of a penalty. Previously, a team’s crew chief was suspended for one race if the team had one lug nut not secure after the race. Now, a crew chief won’t be suspended unless there are two of the 20 lug nuts on the car not secure.

“That was kind of a one-tier approach to assure that the garage area complied with a pretty serious penalty for a crew chief suspension,’’ Miller said of the previous penalty. “As we looked at a more global approach and deeper, what we proposed here and what we enacted here is a lot more the penalty fitting the crime.’’

NASCAR Heat Evolution Features 40-Player Races

Hey, PlayStation drivers! NASCAR Heat Evolution began with a mission: deliver the most intense NASCAR racing experience. Working alongside Monster Games, known for developing classic NASCAR games like the original NASCAR Heat and NASCAR: Dirt to Daytona, we pushed ourselves to find innovative ways to make our racing vision a reality.
That meant extensive car tuning options, adaptive AI that adjusts to your skill level, in-depth Career and Championship modes to capture the exhilaration of the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup, and a new Challenge mode for those who want to step into the cockpit of their favorite drivers and recreate real-life history.

But the biggest thing we wanted to do to separate NASCAR Heat Evolution from any NASCAR title you’ve played before is in online competitive multiplayer. As the first official NASCAR game on PS4, we recognized we had the power to do things never before possible in a NASCAR game. So we committed to giving players the real deal: a full field of 40 racers in online multiplayer — 40 human players all going for the checkered flag in the same race.

In previous NASCAR console games, each multiplayer game was hosted by a specific user, and that kind of peer-to-peer system could result in a number of issues — the host could leave, or have a poor connection, and that could negatively alter the entire race. We knew that system wouldn’t fly if we wanted to put 40 players together in NASCAR Heat Evolution. We built a new system where each online game’s data is hosted by a server. All race data comes from that server, so the entire race experience is no longer tied to any one player.

There will be three different online lobbies available: No Rules, Normal, and Hosted.
No Rules: If you’re a beginner just looking to learn, bump, and crash (or you just want to bump and crash), the No Rules lobby is for you. This is a great place to practice, try things out, or just have a good time with friends.
Normal: For players who want to test their skills but are still looking for a good, clean, and friendly race.

Hosted: This lobby is for people who are more serious about racing. Race hosts will have the option to decide which level of player can join the race session. For example, if the host only wants racers level 5 or higher, he or she can set that parameter when creating the session. In addition, hosts have the right to boot players from their game.

Within each of these lobbies, players have the option of joining an existing session or creating their own. When creating your own race, you’ll be able to select the track, number of laps, fuel/tire wear, and max number of players. Once a race has been created, it will begin in 60 seconds whether the requested number of drivers have joined or not.
Unfortunately, due to the resources required to balance 40 separate players in one race, caution flags will not be available in online multiplayer. It’s not an ideal situation, but we really believe in the new opportunities that multiplayer on this scale opens up. Pitting will still be available in online races depending on the race length and wear options selected. Finally, players have the option to create a private race and invite their friends. This feature is perfect for NASCAR Heat Evolution leagues that want to host weekly races.

Multiplayer will only feature human drivers on the track, so if there are 24 human players in a session, you will see 24 cars on screen. Your starting position is determined by previous lap times at that track. Those with faster lap times will start closer to the front, helping to ensure that players of equal racing ability are placed near one another for a clean start. If a player quits a race for any reason, their car will disappear from the race, but everyone else can continue to compete for the checkered flag. Players who finish online multiplayer races will get Speed Points, as they do in offline racing. There are also a number of PlayStation Trophies up for grabs for those who compete online.
Online or offline, we’re very excited for you to finally get your chance to play NASCAR Heat Evolution when it launches on September 13. See you on the track!