Mostrando postagens com marcador Charlotte Motor Speedway. Bank Of America 500. Mostrar todas as postagens
Mostrando postagens com marcador Charlotte Motor Speedway. Bank Of America 500. Mostrar todas as postagens

segunda-feira, 10 de outubro de 2016

Chase Bubble Watch: Analyzing the playoff picture ahead of Kansas



SHOP: Chase gear

A bright, sunny day at Charlotte turned cloudy in a hurry for Chase contenders Kevin Harvick and Joey Logano, who both experienced major issues within seconds of each other in the Bank of America 500.


Harvick lost power on Lap 154 of a scheduled 334 in his No. 4 Chevrolet, and Logano smacked the wall in Turn 2 of the 1.5-mile track, doing extensive damage to his No. 22 Ford. Both headed behind the wall for repairs that put them multiple laps down, and Harvick never returned to the race.
The good news for Harvick and Logano is other Chase contenders also experienced major problems. Chase Elliott and Austin Dillon were involved in a wreck that brought out a red flag with 74 laps to go and fell behind in the Chase standings. Then, while running in second place with 25 laps to go, Denny Hamlin experienced engine failure that knocked him out of the race and firmly into eighth place and on the Chase bubble.

Charlotte wasn't cloudy for everyone, though. Let's see what the Chase race looks like heading to Kansas.

Who's hot: There were questions leading up to Charlotte about whether the No. 48 team of Jimmie Johnson had what it took to make another title run, and at least for one week the answer was a resounding, "Yes!" Johnson led a race-high 155 laps to capture his 78th victory in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series, and he advanced to the Round of 8 for the first time since the Chase format changed in 2014. ...
Matt Kenseth beat Johnson by one second in a late pit stop, but he couldn't hold the lead on the restart. Still, a second-place finish sets up well for Kansas, where Kenseth has the second-best driver rating behind Johnson and has two wins.

Who's not:
Harvick has one win apiece at Kansas Speedway and Talladega Superspeedway, with his most recent win at those tracks coming in the fall of 2013 at Kansas. Since 2014 (when the new Chase format took over), Harvick has three top-10 finishes in five races at Talladega and three second-place finishes in five races at Kansas. It's not a stretch to say Harvick could win during the next two weeks. ...

Logano, meanwhile, has two career wins at Kansas and one at Talladega, and he won at both tracks last year during the Chase. He hasn't shown quite the speed he had last year, but like Harvick, Logano has a legitimate chance at getting a desperation win. ...

Those who don't have such Sprint Cup experience are Chase Elliott and Austin Dillon, who were involved in a wreck that brought out the red flag with 74 laps to go. Elliott led 103 laps at Charlotte, and Dillon was in second place after gambling on two tires on a late pit stop, so the wreck was a big jolt to their chances at Charlotte and in the Chase.
 

Four in, four out: Here's a look at the Chase bubble, with four drivers being eliminated after the third race of this round, Oct. 23 at Talladega Superspeedway (2 p.m. ET, NBCSN, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

Chase Bubble Watch
Standing Driver Point Differential from Cutoff
5. Kurt Busch +24
6. Carl Edwards +20
7. Martin Truex Jr. +19
8. Denny Hamlin +3
------------ CUT-OFF LINE ------------
9. Austin Dillon -3
10. Chase Elliott -3
11. Joey Logano -6
12. Kevin Harvick -8
Up next: Hollywood Casino 400, Sunday, Oct. 16, 2:15 p.m. ET, Kansas Speedway (NBC, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

Who it favors
Most wins: Jimmie Johnson, 3 (20 races); Matt Kenseth, 2 (21 races); Joey Logano, 2 (14 races).
Best driver rating: Jimmie Johnson, 110.4 (20 races); Matt Kenseth, 107.4 (21 races); Kevin Harvick, 103.4 (21 races).
Best average finish: Chase Elliott, 9.0 (1 race); Jimmie Johnson 9.2 (20 races); Carl Edwards, 10.6 (19 races).

Who it hurts
Worst percentage of top 10s: Kyle Busch, 29.4 percent (5 in 17 races); Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr., 31.3 percent (5 in 16 races).
Worst driver rating: Austin Dillon, 71.0 (6 races); Chase Elliott, 79.3 (1 race); Kyle Busch, 83.8 (17 races).
Worst average finish: Austin Dillon, 20.3 (6 races); Kyle Busch, 19.2 (17 races); Joey Logano, 18.7 (14 races).