Will past success at next four tracks help still-winless drivers make Chase?

While the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series enjoys its final in-season off-weekend, it seems everyone from drivers to crew chiefs to team owners and fans are breaking out their calculators.

They’re all trying to figure out who has the best chance of still making the upcoming 10 race Chase for the Sprint Cup – particularly those drivers who have yet to win a race thus far in 2016.

A total of 16 drivers will qualify for the Chase. As it stands now, 11 drivers are already qualified by virtue of winning at least one race already this season, plus they’re above 30th place, which is the cutoff for Chase eligibility.

A 12th winning driver, Chris Buescher, is not yet qualified for the Chase because he remains three points shy of the 30th place cutoff. If Buescher can leave Richmond in the top-30, he will make the Chase.

One of the most interesting stats is that of the four races remaining before the Chase, several drivers that remain winless this season have enjoyed past victories at those same tracks, particularly Kasey Kahne and Dale Earnhardt Jr., who both have won in the past at three of the next four tracks.

Can lightning strike again for them?

Here’s how it breaks down:

Bristol: Earnhardt, Kahne

Michigan: Greg Biffle,  Earnhardt, Ryan Newman, Kahne

Darlington: Biffle, Regan Smith

Richmond: Earnhardt, Clint Bowyer, Kahne, Newman

For each of those past winners that might triumph again at those tracks, or for other first-time winners in 2016, it would further reduce the number of drivers who make the Chase solely on points.

It remains uncertain whether Earnhardt will be able to make the Chase after having missed the last several races due to a concussion – and remains sidelined.

Given that Earnhardt is ranked 21st in the standings, 51 points behind 16th ranked Trevor Bayne, it would appear the only way he would make the Chase is to win one of the last four – provided he’s cleared to even race at some point during that period.

Right now, drivers who have yet to win a race this year that appear the safest to make the Chase are Newman (50 points ahead of Bayne on the cutoff line), Chase Elliott (+49), Austin Dillon (+47) and Jamie McMurray (+38).

Kyle Larson is also above the cutoff line, but with only an eight-point edge over Bayne, is the driver in the riskiest position.

Larson is still simmering at how AJ Allmendinger wrecked him on the final lap of Sunday’s race at Watkins Glen. It cost Larson what appeared to be a likely top-five finish and left him with a disappointing 29th-place result – which greatly impacted his Chase chances and ranking.

“Pretty dumb move right there,” Larson said of Allmendinger. “I was the smarter one racing for points, lifted, could have wrecked him, but didn’t.”

Instead, it was Larson who was wrecked by Allmendinger.

“He has run me hard, but we always race pretty well, but today was flat out stupid,” Larson said.

The drivers outside the top 16 with the best chance of still sneaking into the Chase on points are Kahne (three points behind Bayne), Ryan Blaney (-8), Allmendinger (-26), Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (-37) and Earnhardt (-51).

Who’s Hot, Who’s Not among Xfinity regulars heading into Mid-Ohio

It doesn’t happen that often during a season, so savor it.

This weekend’s Xfinity Series race at Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course will feature just one Sprint Cup regular in the starting lineup: Ryan Blaney.

Blaney will be driving Team Penske’s No. 22 Ford in the race at the 2.258 mile, 13-turn track.

It will be only the third time through 21 races that there’s just one Cup regular in a Xfinity race. The other two races were at Iowa Speedway, where Brad Keselowski drove the No. 22.

Saturday’s race will feature a first-time winner at the track as the victors of the first three races at Mid-Ohio – AJ Allmendinger, Chris Buescher and Regan Smith – are not entered into it.

Chances are good that the 75-lap event will feature a win by a Xfinity Series regular, which has only occurred five times in 20 races so far.

Here’s a look at Who’s Hot/Who’s Not among Xfinity drivers heading to the Lexington, Ohio, road course.

Who’s Hot:

Elliott Sadler  – Seventeen top-10 finishes in 2016 (most of all drivers) including eight of the last nine races. Finished in the top 10 in all three past races at Mid-Ohio. Ten top 10s in the last 11 road course races (finished 12th at Road America last year ending a streak of nine straight top 10s on road courses).

Justin Allgaier  – Finished in the top 10 in seven of the last eight races including two top fives. Finished in the top 10 in his last eight starts on road courses including a win at Montreal in August 2012 (most recent win). Finished eighth at Mid-Ohio in 2013 in his only start there.

Daniel Suarez – Has finished in the top five in nine races in 2016; only drivers with more are Erik Jones and Kyle Busch with 11 each. Five top fives in the last eight races. Finished fourth at Watkins Glen, his only top 10 in four races on road courses. Finished 11th in this race last year in his only Mid-Ohio start.

Brennan Poole – Finished in top 10 in five of the last seven races including a fourth at Iowa and a 10th at Watkins Glen last week in his first road course start.

Erik Jones – Eleven top fives in 2016 are tied with Kyle Busch for the most in the series and are two more than any other driver; finished top five in three of the last five races. Six poles and three wins in 2016. Finished 12th last week at Watkins Glen in his only Xfinity road course start (ran out of fuel mid-race).

Ty Dillon – finished top-10 in only four of the last eight races. Finished 11th at Watkins Glen, ending a streak of three straight top-10 finishes on road courses. Finished 19th and third in his two Mid-Ohio starts.

Who’s Not:

Darrell Wallace Jr. – One top-10 finish in the last six races and none in the last four. Finished
29th last week at Watkins Glen. Two top-10 finishes in four Xfinity road course starts. Finished eighth in this race last year in his only Mid-Ohio start.

Brandon Jones  – Only one top 10 in the last seven races (10th at Indianapolis). Started 19th, finished 29th at Mid-Ohio in August 2015 and finished 13th last week at Watkins Glen in only other road course start.

Other interesting notes entering this weekend:

Four drivers fighting for the bubble in the Chase are within 14 points of each other: Ross Chastain (-2), Dakoda Armstrong (-9), Jeremy Clements (-14) and Blake Koch (+2).
Team Penske has an average finish of 2.75 at Mid-Ohio and has led 44 percent of the laps raced there (114 of 259).
Mid-Ohio is one of four tracks Joe Gibbs Racing hasn’t won at in the Xfinity Series (Pocono, Watkins Glen and Road America).

Danica Patrick adds to two NASCAR records at Watkins Glen

On the surface, Danica Patrick had a fairly nondescript 21st-place finish in this past Sunday’s Cheez-It 355 Sprint Cup race at Watkins Glen International.

Patrick potentially would have finished higher had she not been caught up in a late-race wreck on Lap 83 of the 90-lap race.

Even with her mid-pack finish, Patrick still came away from the race with a pleasant surprise.

Thanks to a strategy call by crew chief Billy Scott that put her at the front of the pack, Patrick led 11 laps (Laps 34 to 45), breaking the previous NASCAR record of seven laps led in a race by a female driver that she set at Talladega in 2014.

That latter mark surpassed the previous single-race record of five laps led by a female set by Janet Guthrie in the 1977 season finale at the now-defunct Ontario Motor Speedway.

Patrick has now led a career-high 21 laps in the first 22 races of 2016 – breaking her own NASCAR single-season record for laps led by a female driver (15) set in 2014. And with 14 races remaining, she has a chance to add to that amount.

“The race didn’t go as well as we’d hoped, but we led some laps and were able to rally back at the end to get a decent finish, considering all of the damage,” Patrick said after the race.

PAINT UNVEIL: JGR GIVES PEEK AT HAMLIN'S DARLINGTON SCHEME

RELATED: See all the Darlington throwbacks | BUY TICKETS: Darlington

Joe Gibbs Racing, often ahead of the curve when it comes to social media, used a modern technological method -- that'd be Facebook Live -- to give fans a look at something honoring the past on Wednesday.

The team used the live stream to unveil Denny Hamlin's No. 11 Toyota paint scheme that will be used at the Bojangles' Southern 500, which will again have the old-school, throwback theme. The Sept. 4 event will honor the years 1975-84. Hamlin's scheme Pays tribute to Darrell Waltrip's early rides.
 

Hamlin's No. 11 was the third of four JGR schemes to be revealed. Previously, the No. 18 of Kyle Busch and the No. 11 of Carl Edwards showed off their historic looks.

CAIN: EXPANSION AN IMPORTANT STEP FOR JONES, FURNITURE ROW

WATKINS GLEN, N.Y. -- The weekend announcement that up-and-coming star Erik Jones will drive a second Furniture Row Racing car in 2017 was one of the worst-kept secrets in recent big-time NASCAR news. And that's a real compliment to Jones and to the organization.

People are intently interested in the championship-worthy team's expansion. All the buzz and grins speak largely about the team's firm place among Sprint Cup Series top shelf. Expansion is a logical next step.

And looking around at team executives, its drivers and Toyota bigwigs last weekend at Watkins Glen International when Jones' new No. 77 5-hour Energy Camry was unveiled, there are both high hopes and high expectations.

"Today has been a long time coming for Furniture Row Racing," team owner Barney Visser acknowledged over the weekend.

Jones, the 20-year-old reigning Camping World Truck Series champion, currently is contending for the XFINITY Series title with three wins this season while driving a Toyota for Joe Gibbs Racing.

His ticket to the Sprint Cup was inevitable.

This will be an important step for the young Jones, but also for the Denver-based Furniture Row Racing team that already is hard at work preparing its shop to house and operate a second team -- which, Visser said Wednesday night on SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, may only house Jones for one season.

"With how we're running, we will get a very, very good driver after he leaves, if he leaves, and I’m fairly certain he will," Visser said. "We will attract one of the best drivers in the garage for that second slot, I am confident. The cars are just going to be running too well."

When asked again about the likelihood of Jones leaving after one year, Visser said: "I think that’s most likely. We're working on that. What I am saying is the team will go on no matter what and people need to understand that when they come looking for jobs."

From Toyota's standpoint, at least for 2017, this is as natural an evolution as possible. Jones has been "their guy." Pairing him with veteran Martin Truex Jr., driver of the team's current No. 78 Toyota, is the right development right now for manufacturer, team and driver.

From Toyota's perspective, Jones also is truly the first driver the manufacturer has groomed from development series to big league.

"I think it's a great story for Toyota, but probably a greater story for NASCAR and the future of our sport," Toyota Racing Development President David Wilson said at Watkins Glen. "We're all really proud of Erik and think a lot of him not just as a talent, but as a person.

"With Erik, obviously he's a rookie and we like the chemistry of having the veteran Martin Truex side-by-side. And the other great thing is we have the Gibbs drivers to lean on. Our intention is Erik will sit in the competition meetings as early as this season and observe and learn.

"The point we really wanted to make was for Toyota and for Furniture Row adding an additional team, this isn't a one-year deal. My intention is to run at least six Toyotas in the (Sprint) Cup Series from 2017 running forward."

And while initially the expectations will be tightly controlled, below the surface, a real feeling of progress and hope appeared after speaking with the team's executives, and its current championship caliber driver, Truex.

"This goes into the very beginning when we started Furniture Row," team president Joe Garone said. "We just gradually have ramped it up and built the relationships that we felt we've needed to be successful. That comes back to Barney's commitment to invest in the team and our sponsors that Barney brought to the team, Denver Mattress and Furniture Row. … To finally get to a platform that will support multiple cars.

"It's huge. It's at the sacrifice of a lot of hours and a lot of hard work from a lot of people. We're just really excited to be at this platform right now."

Truex, who has qualified for this year's Chase courtesy of one of the most dominating performances in recent years -- he led all but eight laps of the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte -- acknowledged the change in logistics and said, "It's going to be a little more work getting off the ground, but fortunately it's early enough this season to get the cars built and ready for next year."

Truex signed a two-year contract extension with the team earlier last week, as well.

"The biggest thing is I'm excited for Barney and Furniture Row to grow the program," he said. "It's nice to see the success and him having fun with it and able to expand. Two teams should be a more efficient way of doing business and it should make sure we're around for a long time.

"This is no different than the JGR guys welcoming us into the system. We'll all work as one to make our team the best it can be. Erik seems like a great kid and obviously has a lot of talent."

JOHNSON'S NO. 48 TO HONOR PEARSON, EARNHARDT AT DARLINGTON

CONCORD, N.C. -- The throwback paint scheme featured on the No. 48 Lowe's Chevrolet of Jimmie Johnson for this year's Bojangles' Southern 500 pays tribute to a pair of former series champions and NASCAR Hall of Fame members.Johnson's Hendrick Motorsports entry will carry a familiar blue and yellow scheme reminiscent of the colors associated with Dale Earnhardt in which he captured rookie of the year honors for NASCAR's premier series in 1979 and the first of his seven series championships a year later. Earnhardt drove for team owner Rod Osterlund at that time.Earnhardt did not compete in the '79 Southern 500, the fourth and final race of the season he was forced to miss due to injuries sustained in a hard crash earlier that season at Pocono Raceway. Subbing for the team in those four events was three-time NASCAR premier series champion and Hall of Fame member David Pearson.Pearson finished second at Talladega, fourth at Michigan and seventh at Bristol before putting the team in victory lane at Darlington Raceway. It was his ninth title at Darlington, long considered the series' most difficult track to master, and his third in the Labor Day classic."I think it's really cool," Chad Knaus, crew chief for Johnson, said Wednesday during the unveiling of the car. "I can remember the car and scheme from when I was younger, seeing it on television."Obviously Dale's first championship (in 1980) came in a paint scheme similar to this."Earnhardt's nine Darlington wins are second only to Pearson's 10; he also won three Southern 500 titles.Lowe's Home Improvement, longtime sponsor of Johnson and the No. 48 HMS team, has a tie-in as well, providing funding for the No. 2 entry at Talladega in '79.More than two dozen throwback paint schemes for this year's running of the Bojangles' 500 (Sunday, Sept. 4, 6 p.m. ET, NBC, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR) have been announced. The program launched last season and is expected to continue for the next several seasons."The whole Darlington thing is a lot of fun, the environment is full of energy," Knaus, who'll sport a throwback-styled firesuit similar to that of his driver, said. "Maybe I'll get a couple of stopwatches (to time cars), too."Johnson, a six-time series champion, has three Darlington wins, two in the 500."To get another victory there," Knaus said, "would be fantastic."

Bristol Motor Speedway hopes ‘polishing’ of lower groove improves racing

Bristol Motor Speedway is once again experimenting with the racing surface of the half-mile track in hopes of bringing back two-wide racing.

First reported by Motorsport.com, with consideration from the Sprint Cup Drivers Council, Bristol “polished” the lower groove of the track following the Food City 500 in April.

The changes, the first to the track surface since BMS grounded the high line in 2012, were finished last week and will be first raced on Aug. 17 by the Camping World Truck Series. Since the grinding, the preferred racing line has been up high. The track has progressive banking from 24 to 28 degrees in the turns, which came about after a 2007 resurfacing.

This has resulted in less side-by-side racing and fewer dramatic finishes and thrown helmets, which the track has become known for.

BMS released the following statement to NBC Sports from Jerry Caldwell, executive vice president and general manager of the track:

“Following the Food City 500 we evaluated the race and track surface, as we always do. During that process we made a decision to make some minor modifications to the bottom groove. Throughout this process we had great collaboration with industry stakeholders and the NASCAR Driver’s Council. We look forward to another great race weekend during the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race week August 17 -20.”

Steve O’Donnell, NASCAR’s executive vice president and chief racing development officer, was on SiriusXM NASCAR Radio’s “The Morning Drive” Tuesday and addressed the “minor” alterations to the track. O’Donnell said the track “certainly consulted” with the sanctioning body in addition to drivers.

O’Donnell described the work done to the lower lane as “just smoothing the track to get it ready really to apply what’s called VHT (Track bite), which is used in NHRA, kind of at the starting line that applies more grip,” O’Donnell said.

VHT, also known as PJ1 TrackBite, is a “custom formulated resin that provides controlled traction for competition racing” according to Jegs.com.

“So they applied that and then really used the tires to drag the track, so if you get up there you will see what already looks like kind of an asphalt track on the first groove that was concrete,” O’Donnell said, referencing a machine that was also used by Kentucky Speedway following its repave to help improve tire traction. “A lot of work has been done to really bring the lower groove back in. We’ll see how it plays out, but we’re certainly excited heading into this weekend.”

After the Truck race on Aug. 17, the Xfinity Series competes in the Food City 300 on Friday, Aug. 19 before the Sprint Cup Series’ Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race the following evening.